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Typhoon Yutu

Typhoon Yutu: The Most Powerful Storm of 2018 To Hit a U.S. Territory

On October 21st, 2018, Typhoon Yutu began its development as a tropical depression, east of the Northern Mariana Islands, a US commonwealth.  Just hours later, the storm reached tropical storm strength over the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean. During the period of the next three days Yutu would intensify to a Category 5 Typhoon. Around 2:00 AM on October 25th, Yutu made landfall on the Northern Mariana Islands. Satellite imagery shows the eye of the storm passing directly over the island Tinian (population 3,136), completely encompassing it as the devastation within the eye-wall continued on the surrounding islands of Saipan (population 52,263), Rota (population 2,477), and Guam.  The damage received during the typhoon’s arrival would leave the island communities nearly unrecognizable. Yutu would be recorded as the strongest storm to impact a US territory in 2018, and the strongest to impact the Northern Mariana Islands in recorded history.

Typhoon, Hurricane, Cat 5

This image depicts the Northern Mariana Island chain’s location in the midst of Typhoon Yutu.

Super Typhoon Yutu’s Conditions Upon Landfall in the Northern Mariana Islands

Sustained Winds: Sustained 180 mph, Gusting over 200 mph

Storm Surge: Up to 20 feet

Rainfall: Up to 10 inches

The tone of the statements released by officials leading up to the storms arrival was indicative of the damages that would be seen in the days prior to Yutu’s landfall. The National Weather Service office in Guam released this frightening message before the storms arrival, “Most homes will sustain severe damage, with potential for complete roof failure and wall collapse. Most industrial buildings will be destroyed.” These comments proved to be unnervingly valid once the storm had passed.

After the preliminary aerial damage assessments were completed on October 29th, the figures shown below give insight to just how severe the damages are.

Damage inspection, Hurricane, Typhoon

This figure shows the results of the preliminary damage inspections. Officials conducted these inspections during the first fly over after the storm had passed.

These aerial images released by DigitalGlobe give further testament to the absolute devastation that occurred in the disaster area.

It is estimated that these communities will be without power for months in the wake of Typhoon Yutu. Saipan currently has 99 percent of its community without power, Tinian is 100 percent out of power, and the small island of Rota has restored power to 99 percent of the island.

In the 96 hours after the storm’s passing, 121 storm related emergency room visits were recorded. Unfortunately two lives have been lost from this community during this natural disaster.

Yutu continued on its path of destruction after it passed over the Mariana Islands, its next stop, the Philippines. Even though the storm’s intensity, in terms of wind speeds was not as great in this impact area, the devastation was still staggering. With the Philippines  already saturated with moisture from the Typhoon Mangkhut, the unwelcomed rainfall from Yutu exacerbated the troubles for locals in the mountainous areas of the Philippines. As the storm hit, the rainfall caused massive landslides throughout the countryside. Roads throughout the impact area have been blocked by debris making recovery efforts difficult for the first responders. As the recovery process is continues, it truly paints the picture of how bad these events really are for these communities.

Read further:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/super-typhoon-yutu-destruction-1.4879117

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/typhoon-yutu-philippines-1.4883540

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/24/category-typhoon-yutu-with-mph-winds-is-set-ravage-us-territories-saipan-tinian

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144137/super-typhoon-yutu

https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/24/extreme-category-typhoon-yutu-makes-devastating-landfall-northern-mariana-islands-us-commonwealth/

 

 

Hurricane Florence Starts its Assault on North Carolina

Hurricane Florence Current Situation

As of: 2100 UTC, Sep 13nd, 2018

  • Location: 100 miles ESE of Wilmington, NC
  • Size: Category 2
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph
  • Present Movement: WNW at 5 mph
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 955 mb
  • Impact: Up to 11 feet of storm surge, heavy rain causing flash flooding
  • Incident Page: NHC Public Advisory
  • News Article: WunderBlog

Hurricane Florence Outlook

Hurricane Florence has started to impact North Carolina’s barrier islands. As it reaches landfall, the storm has been downgraded to a Category 2 Hurricane, but don’t let the category number fool you. Florence remains a massive and devastating hurricane. The storm continues to grow in area and is predicted to impact a large portion of the North and South Carolina coasts. Maximum sustained winds are hovering around 100 mph, with some higher gusts. Hurricane force winds extend up to 80 miles from the eye of the storm. Some coastal areas are already seeing storm surge flooding.  At the peak of the event, areas around river outflows could be dealing with storm surges up to 11 feet. The greatest storm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras where river outflow will meet the storm surge inundation.  Inland areas are not necessarily in the clear from the damage. Significant flash flooding and prolonged river flooding could extend as far as the Appalachians through early next week as the storm moves inland.

Nearly 2 million people are under hurricane Warning. Authorities are cautioning residents in evacuation zones to get out because first responders will not be able to perform rescues during the storm. Power outages are already affecting around 100,000 people and are expected to get worse as this incident continues.

Click here to look back on this year’s hurricane season outlook to see how the predictions are panning out.

View of the storm path and cone of uncertainty.

 

Predicted Flash Flooding Risk

RedZone Disaster Intelligence

How Can Technology Assist Insurance Carriers With Disaster Moratoriums?

Have you ever wondered how home insurance companies deal with writing new policies in an ongoing disaster zone? Well the truthful answer is they don’t. For instance, when a large wildland fire is threatening homes or has the potential to, insurance carriers place a moratorium on the surrounding landscape. A moratorium is a temporary, but indefinite hold on writing any new home insurance policies within the blanket area that is declared. The purpose of this practice is to stop new customers who aren’t covered for fire, or other disaster related damages, from buying a policy right before the home is damaged. The problem is the geographic regions that are typically chosen for a moratorium are too large. The regions that are chosen usually include areas that are not threatened by the disaster in any way shape or form. This leaves an undesirable gap in business for both the insurers and possible policy holders. Here at RedZone we like to focus on utilizing technology coupled with expertise to solve complicated problems such as this one.

Wildfire

                With advances in current wildfire modeling, insurance companies can have a more precise understanding of what is taking place on the ground currently, as well as what is likely to take place in the upcoming hours of the fire. Wildfire modeling accounts for the essential driving factors behind a wildfire so it can accurately depict where the fire is heading. You can read more about the aspects taken into account in RedZone’s Wildfire model here. By using a wildfire model, insurance companies can reduce the size of the geographic areas that are placed under a moratorium. Then the carriers will have an understanding of where the fire will be moving. This benefits both parties involved in many ways. If a home is not covered for wildfire, and a fire breaks out near the home it may spark an interest for the homeowner to obtain coverage on their home for fire. If the area that the home is located in is under a moratorium, the homeowner will not be able to purchase a policy for that type of coverage.

Canyon 2 Wildfire Model – first 24 hours without suppression

canyon2 final perimeter

Canyon 2 Fire Perimeter – shows the fire’s extent in the first 48 hours with suppression

Hurricane

                In the case of hurricanes, insurance carriers are even more precautious about writing new business when a storm of hurricane magnitude is approaching. The process of putting a moratorium in place for a storm begins when the National Weather Service declares a low pressure system to be of a tropical storm magnitude. You can learn more about hurricane formation and power at RedZone’s Blog on Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Insurance companies immediately put a moratorium into effect for the projected zones that will be impacted by the incoming storm. These areas range from zip codes to counties and even expanding to encompass entire states that could possibly be impacted by the storm. A large portion of homes that are located in a moratorium of that size will likely not be affected by flooding or wind damage from the storm.

One of the ways that GIS (Geographic Information Systems) can help with this problem is with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Dataset. When loaded into a GIS this data will depict what the terrain on the ground will look like. These elevation layers coupled with flood plain data would give an accurate depiction of the level of threat to a structure. What has to be taken into account is that each storm is different. The flood data chosen must accurately match the expected rainfall from the storm in the general location. One solution is to utilize the most severe flood data available, so that the estimations are on the safer side. Another factor that needs to be considered is the damage that occurs from wind during one of these events. GIS is capable of running buffers based on the projected storm path. A buffer coinciding with the relative wind speeds that are capable of damaging homes would be a safe way of creating more accurate moratorium zones during a hurricane. 

NOAA track Oct8

NOAA Potential Track Map issued Thursday Oct 10th, 8pm eastern

Source(s):

http://wiseinsurancegroup.com/insurance-moratoriums-binding-prohibitions/

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2017/12/18/474612.htm

https://www.jebrown.net/content/169/brush-fire-moratorium

http://velocityrisk.com/commercial-insurance/moratorium-policy

https://www.propertycasualty360.com/2016/10/06/how-the-insurance-industry-prepares-for-hurricanes/?slreturn=20180326132445

DISASTER 101 – FLOODING

When most people think of natural disasters, the first thing to come to mind is not likely flooding. However, flooding is the most common natural disaster. Flooding occurs in all 50 states, accounts for 40% of natural disasters, averages 5 billion dollars in damage each year, and claimed an average of 75 lives per year over the last 30 years.

Worldwide, statistics are similar.

According to the 30 year average, flooding is responsible for the most weather-related fatalities.

TYPES OF FLOODING

River and Lake Flooding

River and lake flooding is probably what most people envision when they think of floods. Heavy rainfall or snowmelt can cause water levels to rise overflowing banks and levees. River flooding is common in the Midwest as rain and snowmelt swells the tributaries that feed into larger rivers downstream. Once the water level crests the river banks, the area that is inundated can be widespread. Low lying areas, saturated soils, and urban areas can further exacerbate the effects of the overflow and take days to dissipate.

California experienced flooding in February when a weekend of storms increased runoff from Anderson Lake and flooded low-lying areas of San Jose. The early year storms also prompted the evacuation of over 88,000 people near the weakened Oroville Dam.

In May of 2017, heavy rainfall over the Midwest caused widespread flooding. Nearly 15 inches of rain fell over multiple states, saturating soils, and swelling multiple rivers above historic levels. Numerous levees were breached which flooded towns causing an estimated $1.7 billion dollars in damages to homes, businesses, and infrastructure.

40% of all natural disasters are flooding.

Coast Guard overflight of South Carolina flooding

Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge

A form of flooding happens regularly along coastlines due to the cycle of rising and lowering tides. Tides are a regular rise and fall of sea level caused by the gravitational interplay of the sun, moon, and earth. Occasionally, these tides can be exceptionally high. An increase of just a few feet is more than enough for tides to breech natural and man-made barriers. Many coastal cities are very near, or in some cases lower than, sea level making them especially prone to any change in sea level.

Storm surge can also cause extreme coastal flooding. The surge develops during severe weather, hurricanes, and tropical storms raising sea level as much as 25 feet. Sea level rise is the result of the low atmospheric pressure found in these storms which has a similar effect on sea level rise as the gravitational pull on tides. High winds common with these storms also cause large waves to batter the coast and push water farther inland. In worst case scenarios, the storm surge strikes the coast during a high tide cycle, increasing the flooding exponentially. Storm surge flooding is responsible for 90% of hurricane related deaths and the majority of the damage to structures.

In August of 2017, Hurricane Harvey alone caused over $125 billion dollars in damage and killed 89 people. The majority of the devastation caused by Harvey was a direct result of the widespread flooding of the Houston area.

Flash Floods

Flash floods can result from a variety of causes, but the common denominator is that they develop quickly and are normally caused by heavy rainfall. These floods can also be the result of snow melt, dislodged ice, inadequate urban drainage, or dam breaks. The actual volume of water carried in a flash flood is usually less than other flood types but the water is channeled down confined spaces which causes it to move with devastating force and speed. Because of this speed, flash floods are very dangerous, easily carrying mud, rocks, and trees in its flow. A Weather Channel article stated that, “water flowing at 7 mph has the equivalent force per unit area as air blowing at EF-5 tornado wind speed.” Whereas, “water moving at 25 mph has the pressure equivalent of wind blowing at 790 mph, faster than the speed of sound.”

 

BASIC SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS

Ready.gov provides many helpful tips.

Be Mindful

  • Stay tuned to phone alerts, TV, or radio for weather updates, emergency instructions, or evacuation orders.
  • Avoid walking or driving through flood waters. 6 inches of moving water can knock a person over, and one foot of moving water can sweep a vehicle away. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the leading cause of flood-related injury and death is individuals attempting to drive through flood waters.
  • Do not drive over bridges that are over fast-moving floodwaters. Floodwaters can scour foundation material from around the footings and make the bridge unstable.
  • If there is a chance of flash flooding, move immediately to higher ground.

Protect your home

  • Know your flood risk, avoid building in flood plains, and consider buying flood insurance.
  • If you have to evacuate due to flooding, and if safety permits, turn off all the utilities to your home and attempt to move valuables to the highest possible level.

SOURCES

https://www.ready.gov/floods
https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/floods/types/
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/2017-2018
http://www.floodsite.net/juniorfloodsite/html/en/student/thingstoknow/hydrology/floodtypes.html
https://weatherology.com/articles/106/The+Dangers+of+Flash+Floods.html
https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/power-flood-water-20130704
https://www.livescience.com/23913-flood-facts.html

hurricane harvey spins in gulf

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma batter Southern US

Hurricane Harvey (August 26-31st)

On August 17th,  the National Hurricane Center identified Tropical Storm (TS) Harvey just before it passed through the Lesser Antilles, the islands that form the eastern boundary of the Caribbean Sea with the Atlantic Ocean. Over the next two days TS Harvey moved swiftly to the west into the Caribbean under the influence of an expansive ridge of high pressure but the storm began to rapidly lose energy on the 19th of August and was subsequently downgraded to a tropical depression (TD). As TD Harvey moved from the northwestern Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico over the next four days it gained strength and was upgraded again to a Tropical Storm (TS). By the 24th of August TS Harvey had rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico and was upgraded to a Category 3 Hurricane. Hurricane Harvey made landfall in the early morning of 26 August in Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 Hurricane with a reported 130 mph maximum sustained winds. Harvey’s center of circulation stalled over South Texas for four days dumping 40 and even 50 inches of rain in the Houston and Beaumont areas. The storm moved slowly east back into the Gulf of Mexico before making a final landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, on August 30th and finally dissipating to the north in the days following.

Harvey’s slow movement from 26-30 August resulted in catastrophic flooding in southeast Texas. Numerous flash flood emergencies were issued for the Houston and Beaumont metropolitan areas as well as Bastrop County and nearby communities. Wind gusts from Harvey exceeded 100 mph in many locations, leading to widespread destruction of homes and buildings. Thousands of homes were affected by Harvey, including over 9,000 that were completely destroyed and more than 185,000 that sustained damage according to the Texas Department of Public Safety. Close to 700 businesses were also reported as damaged. Throughout Texas, more than 300,000 people were left without electricity and as of September 6th, at least 70 deaths have been confirmed as a result of Hurricane Harvey.

Additional Info:

NHC NOAA Harvey Event History

Fox News Harvey Article

 

harvey gif

Hurricane Harvey hangs over coastal Texas from August 23rd to September 1st


Hurricane Irma (September 3-11th)

Hurricane Irma reached the United States Sunday Morning, making landfall in the Lower Florida Keys as a Category 4 Hurricane. A few hours later, Category 3, it made landfall a second time just south of Naples, FL on the Southeast coast of Florida. Due to the extreme size and major hurricane status, most of Southern Florida was warned to evacuate ahead of the storm late last week. Upon landfall, extreme winds battered both southern coasts as wind speeds were recorded at 142 mph in Naples and 99 mph in Miami Beach. Storm Surge from the large powerful storm was reported in many places near ten feet along both coasts affected. On Monday, Irma brought heavy rain and wind through the northern Florida city of Jacksonville where 350 people were rescued from the flooding. Irma also pummeled the Charleston area on Monday with over 8 inches of rain and a nearly 10-foot storm surge. The past 48 hours, evacuated Floridians are again dealing with bumper-to-bumper traffic heading home to face monumental cleanups throughout the state.

Wednesday the 13th, the storm has finally completely broken up, and the National Hurricane Center has stopped updating their reports on the storm. In the wake of the storm, President Donald Trump announced this afternoon that he is set to travel to Florida on Thursday. Moody’s estimates Irma caused $83 billion in damage and 77 deaths have been attributed to the storm. Florida utilities have made good progress in restoring power to communities, as 60% of power has been restored, but 4.6 million people are still without power. It could be months before power is restored to some of the islands that were devastated by the storm.

Florida Keys:

The Florida Keys were the hardest hit and today is the first day that the roads were cleared for people to return to their homes for most of the keys. All 42 bridges along US 1 have been inspected and cleared by the Florida Department of Transportation. 80% of the roads across the keys are cleared. Power is restored to 30% of residents, but over 300 major power lines remain downed. Unofficial estimates from FEMA, according to an ABC News report, state that 25% of homes in the keys were destroyed and 90% had damage of some kind. Big Pine Key and Cudjo Key were hit the hardest, as the storm was still a category 4 when it hit them. Few people have returned to those keys, and most utility services are still unavailable. Fuel remains an issue, especially in the areas without power. Most hospitals remain closed, but some with power or backup power have reopened their emergency rooms. Key West was initially thought to have suffered heavy damage, but once people started returning and assessing the damage, most structures were not impacted, just lots of debris and downed trees.

Additional Info:

NHC NOAA Irma Event History

ABC Irma Update

irma gif

Hurricane Irma moves into and through the Caribbean from Sep 3rd through the 11th

Sources:

National Hurricane Center, NOAA, NASA Worldview

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-hurricane-harvey-flooding-houston-20170829-story.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/26/texas-cities-catastrophic-flooding-hurricane-harvey
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/01/hurricane-harvey-death-toll-rises-houston-residents-return
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-harvey-forecast-texas-louisiana-arkansas
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al09/al092017.update.08241656.shtml

GOES-R Environmental Satellite Launched

On November 19, NASA celebrated the successful launch of its latest weather satellite, the revolutionary GOES-R (named GOES-16 once it is operational). This next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) will deliver better weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and space weather monitoring for Earth’s entire western hemisphere.

GOES-R Liftoff on November 19, 2016

GOES-R Liftoff on November 19

GOES-R_Spacecraft

GOES Mission Overview

Positioned roughly 22,000 miles above Earth’s surface, GOES satellites continuously monitor the Western hemisphere, including the United States, the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, Central and South America, and Southern Canada. GOES satellites fly in a geostationary orbit, meaning they rotate around the Earth at the same rate as the Earth spins, so their view of the Earth’s surface never changes. The coverage, along with the sensor suite, allows for constant, near real time coverage of Earth’s weather, climate, and large storm events. GOES also has sensors looking toward the sun and space, measuring solar and space weather.

Why the GOES-R Satellite is Significant

The most exciting update to GOES-R in relation to disaster intelligence is the updated Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The image above describes the improvements to the new sensor. Below are the benefits related to these improvements.

  • Improved hurricane track and intensity forecasts
  • Improved route planning for aviation
  • More advanced warning for severe storms
  • More advanced warning for air quality warnings and alerts
  • Better fire detection and intensity estimation
  • More and better quality data for long-term climate variability studies

This is only one of several next-generation advanced sensors onboard GOES-R. Other sensors will help researchers study tornado warnings, climate, and space and solar weather. It’s no wonder that people are excited about this momentous launch!

Source(s):

http://www.goes-r.gov/

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/6-reasons-why-noaa%E2%80%99s-goes-r-satellite-matters

Hurricane Matthew Brings Dangerous Conditions to the Coast

Hurricane Matthew Update:  October 7, 2016.

Hurricane Matthew continues to push north paralleling the east coast of Florida.  The storm has yet to make landfall, but powerful wind gusts of over 100 mph have downed trees and caused power outages for nearly 1,000,000 people.  Bands of heavy rain currently stretch as far north as South Carolina with flash flooding likely across the lowland areas.  The hurricane has been reduced to a category 2 storm, staying just offshore, but the threat of storm surge flooding remains a critical concern.

Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane Matthew predicted path, as shown in the RZAlert Dashboard.

Unease Growing Over Storm Surge

The storm is currently off the northeast coast of Florida, dousing the coastal town of Jacksonville.  Storm surge flooding combined with heavy rain has already effected much of northeast Florida and Georgia, with–maybe–the worst conditions  yet to come.

In St. Augustine (FL), flooding preceded the storm inundating much of the city’s historic downtown with knee-deep water.  The storm surge in St. Augustine is projected to top 8 feet in some places as the water continues to rise. Nearby, the city of Jacksonville fears for an unprecedented event, warning residents of the potential for catastrophic damage. Officials are expecting storm surges as high as 9 feet and residents began evacuating days ago. According to the city’s mayor, anything over 3 feet is life-threatening.  A major tropical storm has not impacted the city of Jacksonville in over a century.

Charleston Susceptible

Fears are also mounting for the Charleston area where the eye-wall is projected to potentially center itself over the Coastal Carolina city come Saturday morning. Officials are worried the flood levels could be near or even surpass those experienced in the October 2015 flood event which set historic records in terms of damage and lives lost.  The nowCoast™ modeling of the potential storm surge by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows dangerous conditions far inland due to the numerous inlets and intercostal waterways. Interestingly, the storm is projected to move clockwise away from the Southeastern US coast and curl back around toward Cuba. Time will tell what else this storm has in store for an area that has historically escaped major hurricane impact.

Hurricane

Storm surge forecast for Charleston, NC.

Sources:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/heres-hurricane-matthew-might-cause-worst-flooding/?utm_content=buffer1cf9c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-matthew-bahamas-florida-georgia-carolinas-forecast

https://weather.com/news/news/south-carolina-historic-flood-rainfall-record-extreme

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/07/us/hurricane-matthew-florida/