Mendocino Complex Fire Progression Map

The Mendocino Complex: An Update on Current Conditions

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Mendocino Complex Fire Summary

The Ranch fire, which is being managed as a part of the Mendocino Complex, Started on July 27th on the north bound side of highway 20, east of Lake Mendocino. Fuels in this area consisted of grass, brush and Oak trees. The grasses along the highway led the fire rapidly becoming established and making a run upslope to the east. Due to winds in the area the first resources on scene were not able to catch this fire in its initial stages.

The Second fire being managed under the Mendocino Complex is the River Fire. The River Fire began on the east side of Old River Road, nearly 7 miles southeast of Ukiah, CA. Similar to the Ranch fire, the River Fire began in grasses and became rapidly established making a run up slope to the Southeast. The two incidents spread in a very similar manner for the first 3 days due to both fires burning in identical fuel types, and experiencing the same wind conditions during the initial attack phase. This is depicted very well in the fire progression map provided by the incident management team below.

Mendocino Complex Fire Progression Map

Fire progression map displaying the similarities in burn patterns for the initial 3-4 day period of these campaign fires.

Mendocino Complex as of August 16, 2018

The type-1 incident management team has been making significant progress with suppression efforts on these two fires. Currently the River fire remains with 48,920 acres burn and is 100 percent contained. The Ranch Fire has now surpassed the Thomas in acreage and claimed the title of California’s Largest Wildfire in recorded history. The Ranch Fire is currently 317,117 acres with 69 percent containment. The main influence of the Ranch Fire during the upcoming operational will be winds speeds. With the predominant winds coming from the west, the fire will continue push east. As these winds diminish this evening the primary driving factor of fire spread will switch to the local topography. This will likely change the direction of spread to the northeast. With the fire continuing to spread to the Northeast, there will be no shortage of fuel as it furthers its destruction of the Mendocino National Forest. Fire crews have constructed containment lines in this area and are preparing for a firing operation if the opportunity presents itself.

Aerial Imagery, Carr Fire, Mendocino Complex

This image shows both the Mendocino Complex and the Carr fire’s smoke column from a satellites view.

Mendocino Complex Fire Facts

  • As of: August 16th, 2018
  • Location: Clear Lake, CA
  • Size: 366,037 acres
  • Containment: 76%
  • Fire Behavior: Moderate Fire spread through heavy timber and brush in steep, rugged terrain.
  • Structures Threatened: 1025
  • Structures Destroyed: 147 Residences/118 Other
  • Structure Damaged: 13 Residences/ 23 Other
  • Evacuations: Are in place
  • Incident Page: http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents/incidentdetails/Index/2175
  • News Article: ABC 7
Earthquake, History.

Earthquakes – An Unpredictable Force of Destruction

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Earthquakes have caused massive devastation, and amounted to huge numbers of human casualties since the beginning of recorded history. The problem with these natural disasters has become compounded by our cities becoming developed more vertically in the form of taller buildings without the proper respect given to earthquakes during the engineering process. Along with the previously mentioned factor, the general population that doesn’t live in earthquake prone areas won’t know what to do in a situation like this. You can learn more about how to prepare yourself, and what to do during an earthquake event in RedZone’s blog. This blog will hopefully assist in understanding the geoscience that is occurring before, during, and after one of these events takes place.

The Earth’s Crust and Earthquakes

Of the inner Earths four internal layers, the crust and the upper most portion of the mantle play the most vital roles in the unseen processes that power earthquakes. The Earth’s crust is made up of 12 major plates that are very dynamic in nature.

Tectonic plates and Earthquakes

This map displays the 12 major tectonic plates throughout the world.

It is here at the tectonic plate boundaries that the earthquakes originate. As the plate boundaries come to a resting place due to its jagged edges, the remaining portion of the plate remains in constant movement. When the energy from the movement of the rest of the plate becomes too much force for an area of the plate boundary to hold, the edges of these plates shift and this is what causes an earthquake. The earthquake we feel on the ground stems from the seismic waves that are produces when the tectonic plates shift.

There are two primary wave types that are produced by this tectonic shift, the P wave (primary) and S wave (secondary). P waves have also been called the compressional waves due to the way these waves push and pull the matter they are travelling through. S waves are the waves we feel on the surface that create the movement on the earth’s surface. S waves are much slower to appear than the P waves for a seismologist to read.

Seismographic Readings and Determining the Epicenter

Scientists with their particular field of study in earthquakes, track these waves to give the public a rating on the Richter scale of how strong in magnitude an earthquake is. These experts also utilize the seismographs to locate where exactly the epicenter was. Triangulation is used to determine the precise location where the epicenter is. Three seismographs measure the difference in times that the P waves arrive at the seismographs and compare them with the time it take for the S waves to arrive at the same location. A circle is then created around the three selected seismograph locations with the radius being determined off the aforementioned time difference in seismic wave arrival. The point at which each of the three seismographs calculated circles meet is the epicenter.

Epicenter of Earthquakes

This diagram depicts a visual representation of how the epicenter of an earthquake is found from three seismographs.

 

Predicting Earthquakes

Unfortunately scientists have been unsuccessful so far in the prediction of when the next earthquake will occur. Earthquake prediction is more often defined as the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades. Like many naturally-occurring phenomena, they are nearly impossible to accurately predict.  Prediction methods go back hundreds of years.j Methods generally involve precursors which among them include animal behavior, gas emissions, and even electromagnetic anomalies. Generally, Earthquake prediction is  thought of as an immature science with any claims of prediction found circumstantial and arguable.

Earthquake warning systems on the other hand have proven successful on a number of occasions especially in areas farther from an epicenter.  The effectiveness of the warning depends on the position of the receiver. After receiving a warning, a person may have a few seconds to a minute or more to take action. Areas near the epicenter may experience strong tremors before a warning is issued. Early warning systems have been prevalent in Japan, Mexico, Canada, and the United States for years.

Sources:

https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/fs20163020

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/kids/eqscience.php

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/facts.php

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/earthquakes/

http://www.geo.mtu.edu/UPSeis/waves.html

DISASTER 101 – FLOODING

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When most people think of natural disasters, the first thing to come to mind is not likely flooding. However, flooding is the most common natural disaster. Flooding occurs in all 50 states, accounts for 40% of natural disasters, averages 5 billion dollars in damage each year, and claimed an average of 75 lives per year over the last 30 years.

Worldwide, statistics are similar.

According to the 30 year average, flooding is responsible for the most weather-related fatalities.

TYPES OF FLOODING

River and Lake Flooding

River and lake flooding is probably what most people envision when they think of floods. Heavy rainfall or snowmelt can cause water levels to rise overflowing banks and levees. River flooding is common in the Midwest as rain and snowmelt swells the tributaries that feed into larger rivers downstream. Once the water level crests the river banks, the area that is inundated can be widespread. Low lying areas, saturated soils, and urban areas can further exacerbate the effects of the overflow and take days to dissipate.

California experienced flooding in February when a weekend of storms increased runoff from Anderson Lake and flooded low-lying areas of San Jose. The early year storms also prompted the evacuation of over 88,000 people near the weakened Oroville Dam.

In May of 2017, heavy rainfall over the Midwest caused widespread flooding. Nearly 15 inches of rain fell over multiple states, saturating soils, and swelling multiple rivers above historic levels. Numerous levees were breached which flooded towns causing an estimated $1.7 billion dollars in damages to homes, businesses, and infrastructure.

40% of all natural disasters are flooding.

Coast Guard overflight of South Carolina flooding

Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge

A form of flooding happens regularly along coastlines due to the cycle of rising and lowering tides. Tides are a regular rise and fall of sea level caused by the gravitational interplay of the sun, moon, and earth. Occasionally, these tides can be exceptionally high. An increase of just a few feet is more than enough for tides to breech natural and man-made barriers. Many coastal cities are very near, or in some cases lower than, sea level making them especially prone to any change in sea level.

Storm surge can also cause extreme coastal flooding. The surge develops during severe weather, hurricanes, and tropical storms raising sea level as much as 25 feet. Sea level rise is the result of the low atmospheric pressure found in these storms which has a similar effect on sea level rise as the gravitational pull on tides. High winds common with these storms also cause large waves to batter the coast and push water farther inland. In worst case scenarios, the storm surge strikes the coast during a high tide cycle, increasing the flooding exponentially. Storm surge flooding is responsible for 90% of hurricane related deaths and the majority of the damage to structures.

In August of 2017, Hurricane Harvey alone caused over $125 billion dollars in damage and killed 89 people. The majority of the devastation caused by Harvey was a direct result of the widespread flooding of the Houston area.

Flash Floods

Flash floods can result from a variety of causes, but the common denominator is that they develop quickly and are normally caused by heavy rainfall. These floods can also be the result of snow melt, dislodged ice, inadequate urban drainage, or dam breaks. The actual volume of water carried in a flash flood is usually less than other flood types but the water is channeled down confined spaces which causes it to move with devastating force and speed. Because of this speed, flash floods are very dangerous, easily carrying mud, rocks, and trees in its flow. A Weather Channel article stated that, “water flowing at 7 mph has the equivalent force per unit area as air blowing at EF-5 tornado wind speed.” Whereas, “water moving at 25 mph has the pressure equivalent of wind blowing at 790 mph, faster than the speed of sound.”

 

BASIC SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS

Ready.gov provides many helpful tips.

Be Mindful

  • Stay tuned to phone alerts, TV, or radio for weather updates, emergency instructions, or evacuation orders.
  • Avoid walking or driving through flood waters. 6 inches of moving water can knock a person over, and one foot of moving water can sweep a vehicle away. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the leading cause of flood-related injury and death is individuals attempting to drive through flood waters.
  • Do not drive over bridges that are over fast-moving floodwaters. Floodwaters can scour foundation material from around the footings and make the bridge unstable.
  • If there is a chance of flash flooding, move immediately to higher ground.

Protect your home

  • Know your flood risk, avoid building in flood plains, and consider buying flood insurance.
  • If you have to evacuate due to flooding, and if safety permits, turn off all the utilities to your home and attempt to move valuables to the highest possible level.

SOURCES

https://www.ready.gov/floods
https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/floods/types/
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/2017-2018
http://www.floodsite.net/juniorfloodsite/html/en/student/thingstoknow/hydrology/floodtypes.html
https://weatherology.com/articles/106/The+Dangers+of+Flash+Floods.html
https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/power-flood-water-20130704
https://www.livescience.com/23913-flood-facts.html