Four Interesting Links From A Wild Week in California

Here we are dealing with yet another crazy autumn week of wildfire in California. As we noted earlier this fall, annually, Santa Ana Wind events cause new fire ignitions to become dangerously uncontrollable and have statistically caused the fastest-moving and most destructive fires on record. Now, barely a year removed from last year’s devastating October Fire Siege  Northern California is dealing with the Camp Fire, now the deadliest and most destructive fire in history. Similarly, not even a year removed from the giant Thomas Fire in Ventura County, several nearby coastal communities are dealing with their own widespread evacuations and impacts from the destructive Woolsey fire. RedZone has been working tirelessly monitoring, updating, and aiding our customers in response to both of these unique and tragic events. While tracking the fires, we’ve happened upon some really sad, interesting, and heroic stories. Here are a few we found worthy to share.


Barely a year removed from last year’s devastating October Fire Siege Northern California is dealing with the Camp Fire, now by far the deadliest and most destructive fire in history.


The Search continues on Paradise Fire for the Missing

Vice News investigates the intense search for answers on hundreds of missing people in the wake of last week’s Camp Fire. Many residents are still searching for missing loved ones. Exacerbated by the fact that the 26,000 person city is known for being a large retirement community making success of evacuation even more problematic.


Ten Hours in Hell

Bill Roth was home with his fiancee and dog when the Camp Fire started. After getting them out, he stayed to try saving his house. He spent ten hours in what he called, “hell”.

A second survivor who’s friends weren’t so lucky: https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/He-couldn-t-save-his-friends-Now-Camp-Fire-13382947.php#photo-16473858


The Controversial Case for Letting Malibu Burn

damage_proxy_map_malibu_fire

The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, created this Damage Proxy Map (DPM) depicting areas of Southern California that are likely damaged (shown by red and yellow pixels) as a result of the Woolsey Fire.

Professor Mike Davis has long been infamous for his stance on letting Malibu burn. This stance came around again as this month’s Woolsey fire has destroyed over 1,000 structures in exactly the fire he predicted. What’s your take on Davis’ stance that “the broader public should not have to pay a cent to protect or rebuild mansions on sites that will inevitably burn every 20 or 25 years”?

Read the following the for the recent story and backstory.

Recent Article: https://qz.com/1468286/mike-daviss-case-for-letting-malibu-burn-is-sadly-relevant-again/

Original Take: http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/misc/misc/SoCalFires.html


Before and After the Fire: Disaster Imagery

before and after malibu fire

Geospatial Intelligence Center has provided pre and post event imagery from last weeks fires.

Pan around or search for an address on their Esri-powered site:

https://maps.geointel.org/app/gic-public/

Mendocino Complex Fire Progression Map

The Mendocino Complex: An Update on Current Conditions

Mendocino Complex Fire Summary

The Ranch fire, which is being managed as a part of the Mendocino Complex, Started on July 27th on the north bound side of highway 20, east of Lake Mendocino. Fuels in this area consisted of grass, brush and Oak trees. The grasses along the highway led the fire rapidly becoming established and making a run upslope to the east. Due to winds in the area the first resources on scene were not able to catch this fire in its initial stages.

The Second fire being managed under the Mendocino Complex is the River Fire. The River Fire began on the east side of Old River Road, nearly 7 miles southeast of Ukiah, CA. Similar to the Ranch fire, the River Fire began in grasses and became rapidly established making a run up slope to the Southeast. The two incidents spread in a very similar manner for the first 3 days due to both fires burning in identical fuel types, and experiencing the same wind conditions during the initial attack phase. This is depicted very well in the fire progression map provided by the incident management team below.

Mendocino Complex Fire Progression Map

Fire progression map displaying the similarities in burn patterns for the initial 3-4 day period of these campaign fires.

Mendocino Complex as of August 16, 2018

The type-1 incident management team has been making significant progress with suppression efforts on these two fires. Currently the River fire remains with 48,920 acres burn and is 100 percent contained. The Ranch Fire has now surpassed the Thomas in acreage and claimed the title of California’s Largest Wildfire in recorded history. The Ranch Fire is currently 317,117 acres with 69 percent containment. The main influence of the Ranch Fire during the upcoming operational will be winds speeds. With the predominant winds coming from the west, the fire will continue push east. As these winds diminish this evening the primary driving factor of fire spread will switch to the local topography. This will likely change the direction of spread to the northeast. With the fire continuing to spread to the Northeast, there will be no shortage of fuel as it furthers its destruction of the Mendocino National Forest. Fire crews have constructed containment lines in this area and are preparing for a firing operation if the opportunity presents itself.

Aerial Imagery, Carr Fire, Mendocino Complex

This image shows both the Mendocino Complex and the Carr fire’s smoke column from a satellites view.

Mendocino Complex Fire Facts

  • As of: August 16th, 2018
  • Location: Clear Lake, CA
  • Size: 366,037 acres
  • Containment: 76%
  • Fire Behavior: Moderate Fire spread through heavy timber and brush in steep, rugged terrain.
  • Structures Threatened: 1025
  • Structures Destroyed: 147 Residences/118 Other
  • Structure Damaged: 13 Residences/ 23 Other
  • Evacuations: Are in place
  • Incident Page: http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents/incidentdetails/Index/2175
  • News Article: ABC 7

2018 California Wildfire Update – Is This The New Normal?

Last Year’s Disaster

During the massively destructive 2017 wildfire season in California, certain phrases kept being repeated. “Unprecedented”, “Uncharted territory”, “Historic”, “War zone”, “New normal”, and other descriptive phrases were used to try and give people an understanding of the magnitude and severity of the fires. People hoped 2018 would be different, but “New Normal” seems to be an accurate description of what we can expect from wildfires in California.

This Year’s Activity (So Far)

California governor Jerry Brown has started to get lawmakers and the public to brace for the increasing threat of wildfires. He was recently quoted in a SacBee article, saying that fighting wildfires in the state is “going to get expensive, it’s going to get dangerous, and we have to apply all our creativity to make the best of what is going to be an increasingly bad situation.”

Around a quarter of California’s annual fire suppression budget has already been spent; even though the fiscal year just started July 1st. Simultaneous large fires are also spreading resources thin. As of this writing, 16 large uncontained fires burning a total of 343,700 acres continue to to challenge California firefighters. The largest and most destructive of these fires is the Carr Fire near Redding, which claimed 6 lives and destroyed over 1,000 homes. It already ranks as California’s 6th most destructive wildfire. In fact, half of California’s 10 most destructive wildfires have happened in the last 4 years.

National resources are also spread thin, as the National Interagency Fire Center has upped the National Preparedness Level to 5 (out of a possible 5), indicating that resources are already fully committed to current fires. New fire starts will have a higher potential for large growth, as there will be limited resources to stop the fire before it gets established.

NASA image courtesy NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) project. Image taken August 1, 2018.

 

California Active Large Fire Facts

 

The Ferguson Fire burns near Yosemite National Park on Sunday, July 15, 2018, as seen from El Portal, Calif. (Carrie Anderson via AP)

Ferguson Fire Scorches over 21,000 acres near Yosemite

The Ferguson Fire began last Friday evening (13/July) in the Savage Trading Post area of Mariposa County, CA. It quickly grew past 4,000 acres by Sunday morning. Evacuations were issued for several areas in the vicinity and parts of Hwy 140 were closed due to firefighting activities. From the beginning, crews focused on securing fire line along Hwy 140 and structure protection where needed. In preparation for the hot and dry forecast, additional resources worked to extend containment lines to the east on both north and south flanks of the fire. Daily, an inversion has kept the smoke low over the fire which limits the usage of aircraft for water and retardant drops. Another compounding factor to this very active fire is the available fuels – this area has had no significant wildfire in nearly 100 years.

 

Ferguson plume at sunset

Ferguson Fire smoke-plume at sunset from Yosemite National Park, 17/July/2018. (Photo: Scott Newmann)

 

Fire Outlook

The forecast has been much the same each day for the Ferguson Fire area. Today’s weather was similar to yesterday with upper 90os and into the triple digits, relative humidity around 17-20%, and light & variable west winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. As thunderstorms built over the area after lunch, these winds increased to 15 mph with stronger gusts. These conditions will lead to ongoing active fire behavior. As safety allowed, crews conducted burning operations along the western and eastern sides of the fire. This means they purposely burned fuel to remove it in controlled portions. Removing this fuel allows resources to better control where the fire can grow and spread next. At only 7% containment, crews are pre-positioned in the communities around the fire in case the winds drive it quickly to the houses. So far, no homes have been destroyed from this fire, but the destructive California fires of this past fall and winter remain fresh in everyone’s minds.

 

Smoke traveled from the Ferguson Fire into Yosemite National Park and lingered as the inversion continued day after day. (Photo: Scott Newmann)

Smoke traveled from the Ferguson Fire into Yosemite National Park and lingered as the inversion continued day after day. (Photo: Scott Newmann)

Fire Facts

  • As of: July 19th, 2018
  • Location: Mariposa, CA
  • Size: 21,041 acres
  • Containment: 7%
  • Fire Behavior: Moderate fire spread through brush/chapparal and light pine timber
  • Structures Threatened: 108
  • Structures Destroyed: zero
  • Evacuations: In place for Jerseydale and Mariposa Pines to the south, Yosemite West to the east, and along Hwy 140 to the north
  • Incident Page: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5927/

WildfireIntel.org is Quickly becoming a Trusted Source

Late June and early July added several new ignitions to a wildfire season that was already off to an ominous start. So far in 2018 major fires have already igniting across Texas, Oklahoma, and the Southwest. The recent heat wave that swept Red Flag fueled wildfires across the US resulting in evacuations and structure loss in Colorado, California, Utah, and  As we move deeper into the summer months, increasingly warm and dry conditions will continue to fuel the threat of wildfires. The National Inter-agency Fire Center released their fire potential outlook for summer months, predicting an above average fire season for all of the twelve western states making wildfire intelligence gathering even more essential.

A New Source for Wildfire Intelligence

Understanding the need for real-time wildfire intelligence, a conversation started between group of devout users and former moderators. This group came together to revive a forum that once popular among the fire community. For a variety of reasons they ultimately decided it was best to spin-off a new website. This new website, branded wildfireintel.org, was created as a non-profit with the mission to create a free public forum for discussing “topics important to the fire community”. Relevant subjects include fire related “incidents, jobs, industry, safety, and health”.

Wildfire Intelligence Forum Example

An example of how the forum is structured based off geographic regions.

Recent Fire Activity Drives Traffic and Additional Users to the Website

Although it’s still in the initial stages of development, wildfireintel.org is up and running and gaining traction. WildfireIntel.org is quickly becoming a trusted source for accurate, real-time information. Recent fire activity is helping increase traffic to the forum, with the last 30 days adding over 200 new users and almost a million page views. Knowing that forums survive by the active participation of its users the founders of the website are encouraging the fire community to continue to contribute to the site. The founders hope that with increased participation an “active and sustainable wildfire community” will again foster and provide much need wildfire intelligence. For more information, please visit the wildfireintel.org website and/or become more involved by registering.

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Wildfire Intelligence Logo

Spring Fire Ignites in Colorado

Colorado has already seen its fair share of wildfires this season. The 416 and Burro Fires ignited in early June and are still raging. Almost daily Red Flag conditions have punished the state and resulted in explosive fire growth. Late Wednesday evening (June 27th), strong winds and exceptionally dry conditions resulted in another new start close to the New Mexico border.

The Spring Fire broke out just east of Alamosa, Colorado and quickly began spreading towards the community of La Veta. On Thursday a sparse crew of firefighters accompanied by limited air resources attempted to gain the upper hand but had to retreat as the fire, pushed by 35+ mph winds, tore through over 4000 acres of rough terrain.

Today (Friday June 29th), fueled by another day of Red Flag conditions, the fire exploded to over 24,000 acres and has jumped CO 160, forcing the closure of the highway. Over 2,500 people have been evacuated from the area between Fort Garland and La Veta. A Type II Incident Management team arrived with additional resources this morning to manage the large out of control wild fire. 

Spring Fire

  • Location:10.2 Miles W of La Veta, CO, Huerfano County
  • Size: 33,956 acres
  • Containment: 0%
  • Fire Behavior: Rapid fire spread due to erratic winds, dry conditions, and high temperatures.
  • Structures Destroyed: Structures reported lost but no official number released at this time.
  • Incident Link: Inciweb
  • Weather Forecast: Weather.gov

Spring Fire – Current perimeter as of June 29th, 2018

The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until tonight at 2100 MDT but will likely be renewed tomorrow due to another day of high temperatures, low humidity, and winds reaching 20 mph. With temperatures being in the mid 80s well into next week, it’s not likely that crews will contain this wildfire anytime soon.

A New Source for Wildfire Intelligence and Discussion

The 2018 wildfire season is already off to a strong start. So far this year major fires have already igniting across Texas, Oklahoma, and the southwest. As we move into the summer months, increasingly warm and dry conditions will continue to fuel the threat of wildfires. The National Inter-agency Fire Center released their fire potential outlook for summer months, predicting an above average fire season for all of the twelve western states making wildfire intelligence gathering even more essential. This foreboding outlook comes on the heels of an oft dubbed “unprecedented” 2017 wildfire season that shattered multiple records.

A Trusted Source Lost

2017 thrust the threat of wildfires back into the public spotlight. Numerous fires across the United States grabbed nationwide media attention but none more than the two most significant California fires; The October Fire Siege in Napa/Sonoma and the Thomas Fire in the Ventura/Santa Barbara area. With broadcast and social media flooding in, one trusted source of wildfire intelligence was surprisingly absent from the conversation. Without notice, during the late season chaos of the Thomas fire, the WildlandFire.com forum was taken offline and all the data was lost.

What was WildlandFire.com?

WildlandFire.com was conceived in the early nineties as a way to provide, “a quick, reliable system to allow firefighters and other employees (and their families) the ability to voice their thoughts, ideas, experiences, or even ask a few simple questions.”. By the late nineties the forum gained traction, soon becoming a trusted source within the firefighting community.

Wildfire Intelligence Forum

Understanding the essential role this type of web forum plays, a conversation started on how to revive the website. A group of “devout users and former moderators” ultimately decided it was best to spin-off a new website. This new website, branded wildfireintel.org, was created as a non-profit with the mission to create a forum for discussing “topics important to the fire community”. Relevant subjects include fire related “incidents, jobs, industry, safety, and health”.

Wildfire Intelligence Forum Example

An example of how the forum is structured based off geographic regions.

For More Information and How to Register

Although it’s still in the initial stages of development, wildfireintel.org is now up and running. Knowing that forums survive by the active participation of its users the founders of the website are encouraging the fire community to contribute to the site. The founders hope that with increased participation an “active and sustainable wildfire community” will again foster. For more information, please visit the wildfireintel.org website and/or become more involved by registering.

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Wildfire Intelligence Logo

tinder thumbnail

Illegal Campfire the Cause of Destructive Tinder Fire

The Tinder fire was ignited Friday April 30th in the Blue Ridge area about 50 miles southeast of Flagstaff. RedZone began actively monitoring that afternoon as it grew to 50 acres. By Saturday night the fire slowly grew to 230 and then 500 acres only. On Sunday, things changed drastically. Fanned by strong southwest winds, the Tinder fire made an 8,000 acre run to the Northeast. The run pushed the fire into and beyond the community along Hwy 87 threatening homes in the Moquis Ranchettes, Starlight Pines, Clear Creek, Timber Ranch, Tamarron, Pine Canyon, Blue Ridge Estates, Ponderosa Pines and Mogollon Ranches areas.

Tinder Fire Slows its Growth

Monday, the fire has grew to over 11,000 acres with most of the growth, luckily, on the right or eastern flank where there are no homes or neighborhoods. Fortunately, despite strong winds continuing in the area, only 300 acres of growth was seen yesterday. In addition, the fire area experienced precipitation of snow and light rain overnight that should assist firefighters’ progress (from only 7% as of 5/2/18) with containment lines. Furthermore, with an estimated 30 homes impacted, damage assessments were  completed Monday by the IMT. But, as of today, there were still no results released to the public. As a result of the fire situation, road, area and trail closures are in effect.

tinder fire map

The Tinder Fire Perimeter as of May 2nd, 2018

 

Tinder Fire Facts: (As of May 2, 2018)

  • Location: Blue Ridge Reservoir, 48mi SE of Flagstaff, AZ
  • Cause: Investigators have confirmed that the cause of the blaze was an abandoned illegal campfire.
  • Size: 11,736 acres
  • Containment: 7%
  • Fire Behavior: Moderate fire spread through timber and chaparral.
  • Structures Threatened: _1,700_ PRIM; __COMM; __OUTB
  • Structures Destroyed: _UNK_ PRIM; __COMM; __OUTB

Additional Tinder Fire Info:

For further info, please visit:

The Watchers News – Arizona

http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/

www.twitter.com/TinderFireInfo

Thomas Fire Set to Become Largest in CA History

UPDATE 01/03/18 @ 4:49 p.m. – The fire is now 92% contained at 281,893 acres.

Thomas Fire Summary

The Thomas Fire began in Ventura County just north of Santa Paula around 630pm on Monday December 4th. Under Red Flag and Santa Ana Conditions the fire quickly made a push along Hwy 150 to the south and parallel to Hwy126 to the west threatening Santa Paula and Ventura the first night. The fire continued its push west, crossing Hwy 33 and reaching the ocean at Hwy 101 shortly after. Over the course of the next week the fire slowly boxed in Ojai, eventually surrounding it, and pushed its way further west towards the Santa Barbara County line. By this time, the majority of the 1,330 structures impacted already had been. A few days later, the fire used a new round of overnight wind gusts to make a big run on the morning of Sunday Dec 9th, establishing itself above Carpinteria and Montecito. The following Saturday another round of morning winds forced the fire down into the fringe of Montecito, forcing a wall of engines into a several hour battle to push stall its progress. Luckily, by this time over 8,000 firefighters were assigned to the fire, and up to the task of suppression the big morning run. Thanks to their efforts, of the reported 1,300 homes threatened on Dec 16th, only 15 or so were impacted.

thomas progression

Thomas Fire’s progression from Dec 4th (green) through Dec 22nd (red)

Since that push, the fire’s progress has stalled and containment has increased to 65%. Still over the last 17 days, the fire is only 500 acres shy of topping the Cedar Fire for largest in California history. A burn operation is expected to add the acres needed with a few thousand more before all is said and done. Luckily, the firefighters necessary to see the fire out have been halved since the peak last week, but the suppression costs could eclipse last summer’s costly Soberanes fire in well short of the time. The full containment of the historic fire is not expected until after 2018 has begun.

Thomas Fire Major Developments:

  • Yesterday’s wind event produced 50 mph gusts, but fire activity remained minimal.
  • The firing operation was stalled yesterday due to high humidity and some snowfall. It was able to continue in the afternoon, and further firing is planned today for the Rose Valley area.
  • The fire area effectively endured two straight weeks of high to extreme fire weather conditions. Over that period, RH dropped as low as 3-5% and wind speeds were recorded over 60mph.
  • The fire is 500+ acres shy of passing 2003’s Cedar Fire for largest (in terms of acreage burned) in recorded California history.
  • Total fire suppression costs have ballooned to $170 million in just 17 days. It took last year’s Soberanes Fire twelve weeks to cost its total of $236 million.
top ten acres burned

Thomas Fire is 2nd all time in California’s history for acreage burned, but not for long.

Thomas Fire Facts:

  • Location: Fillmore all the way to Santa Barbara, both Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
  • Size: 272,800 acres (as of 1/3/18 – 281,893)
  • Containment: 65% (as of 1/3/18 – 92%)
  • Fire Behavior: Light fire behavior with interior burning on the northern portions of the fire
  • 1,063 structures have been destroyed and 267 more have been damaged.
  • 18,000 Structures remain threatened.
  • All Mandatory Evacuations have been lifted.
top four ca fires

California’s four largest fires in history (update 01/03/18 : Thomas is now number 1)

Sources:

NIFC.GOV

CalFire Incident Page

Inciweb

Wikipedia – List of California Wildfires

Napa Sonoma Fires

As the Napa and Sonoma Fires Unfolded

THE FIRST 24 HOURS

Santa Rosa Neighborhood damaged

A fallen flag re-hung the day after the fires burned through the neighborhoods of NE Santa Rosa

1130 Oct 8

For me, it was a typical Fall Sunday in America; highlighted by a one-year old’s birthday party and a big Packer win over the Cowboys. My arrival at home didn’t come until after 10 o’clock, in this case maybe fortunately, and the nightly peek at my work emails even later than that. On a typical Sunday night, my inbox might have some evening updates on fires or new reports of small, irrelevant starts. In this case, by 1130pm I already had twelve IPN emails and loads of tweets warning of the multiple starts. I was alarmed to see troubling terms like “high winds”, “evacuations”, and even “structure involvement” were being used for fires across multiple Northern California counties. I immediately flashed back to Gatlinburg TN, where lives and property were tragically lost in the middle of the night less than a year ago. I sprung into action, turning on fire radio and attempting to figure out exactly where all this activity fell on our map. For the first time in my five years with RedZone, I was headed to the office in the middle of the night to get a headstart on what was surely going to be a long couple days ahead dealing with the Napa Sonoma Fires.

0400 Oct 9

Not long after my colleague and I arrived, we knew what were hearing was really bad news. By 4 am we had about a dozen new large wildfire starts on our radar. Winds howling north of 50 mph were sending extreme fire behavior through the dry grass and oak terrain of several northern counties.  Butte had fires. Clearlake had a fire. Mendocino had fire. Sonoma had multiple fires. Napa was on fire. What’s worse, is, not only is it just wildfire chaos but it’s in the middle of the night. Due to strained resources and limited air reinforcements, fire crews focused all their energy on life-saving and evacuation activities rather than attempt any form of structure protection. As the morning wore on, the true impact to life and property was apparent as radio traffic was overwhelmed with calls of residents entrapped and flooded with eerily streamlined reports of structures ablaze. It was one of the worst things I’ve witnessed unfold, as I knew in my heart not everyone would get out alive.

1800 Oct 9

We spent a good part of late summer watching three major hurricanes devastate areas like Houston, Key West, and Puerto Rico. Something about this just seemed worse, probably the lack of warning and widespread destruction. By the time most of the country woke up, the Tubbs and Atlas Fires had already force-evacuated thousands leaving destroyed homes and commercial properties in its wake. In Santa Rosa, the fire actually crossed the 101 Highway through town. In Napa, a number of iconic wineries and high dollar properties were already devastated by the firestorm. What we saw was the result of a recipe for disaster. High winds with dry fuels and low RH; despite last winter’s drought-relieving rains, the excess fine fuels were ripe for the taking. The multiple starts knocked out cell towers and power across the area. Even as the day wore on and more and more resources arrived, all they could do was focus on evacuations, life-saving, and structure protection as the fires continued to burn uncontrolled.

napa sonoma fire progression

Napa Sonoma Fires progression from green on Oct 9 to dark red on Oct 18th