Wildfire 101: United States Fire Regimes

With climate change becoming more prevalent in recent years, science has been looking for ways to examine how changes to the earth’s present and past environment will affect the way wildfires will burn in the future. Fire regimes are a great start for looking into how climate change will affect the behavior, occurrence, and characteristics of how wildfires burn. According to Firescience.gov, the definition of a fire regime is “In general a fire regime characterizes the spatial and temporal patterns and ecosystem impacts of fire on the landscape”. Many characteristics of the environment go into shaping the fire regime in any given area.

Fire Regime Factors

Of the many factors within the environment that come into play when creating fire regimes, there are two critical aspects that shape how fires burn the most. The first of these two crucial factors is the dominant vegetation type within the ecosystem. Chemically, fires need three ingredients to burn, oxygen, heat, and fuel (vegetation). Therefore, if any one of these is removed an ignition cannot occur. History tells us that the type of vegetation is a key factor because of how large the difference in fire behavior is between fuel types. A second major factor involved in formulating a fire regime for a certain area is climate. The local weather patterns in an area have a huge impact on how a fire will burn through the geographic region in question.

fire regimes 48 states

Lower 48 United states classified into fire regime zones.

In the formation of these regimes, fire ecologists have used data regarding vegetation classifications pertaining to the dominant vegetation type in the area. This is combined with historical fire information such as, fire perimeters, and fire conditions to get an understanding of how fire acts within the landscape. Lastly, fire return interval rates are used to determine, on average, how long it will take to have a fire reoccur in a landscape that has burned.

Fire Regime Classification

Over the years fire ecologists have made many attempts at creating fire regimes for the United States using a variety of weighted combinations and factors similar to what was mentioned above. Recently, one group has emerged with the most thorough and up to date classifications of fire regimes. LANDFIRE has created a robust model that incorporates the historical aspect of past fires, and what is projected for the future of the landscape. This will provide a base platform for future research to see how wildfires occurrence, and characteristics are changing as the climate continues to change. Below is a map of the United States classified by each regions respective fire regime as well as, the legend that explains what each level of classification means for that specific area.

fire regime table

This table shows the characteristics behind the fire regime classifications listed on the map above.

Sources:

https://www.firescience.gov/projects/09-2-01-9/supdocs/09-2-01-9_Chapter_3_Fire_Regimes.pdf

https://www.landfire.gov/fireregime.php

https://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/fire_regime_table/PNVG_fire_regime_table.html

helo wildfire

It’s Prescribed Fire Season

 

In many wildland areas, smoke can often be seen throughout the winter. More than likely, this is not due to uncontrolled wildfire, but rather prescribed fires that are started when the weather is less conducive to catastrophic burns, allowing firefighters and crews to prepare for when wildfire season picks up again.

 

30230_628921240365_2148150_n.jpgA Rx fire (controlled pile burning) I helped ignite in Golden Hills near Tehachapi, CA

 

Prescribed fire is one of the most effective mitigation concepts for reducing the outbreak and spread of wildfires. SmokeyBear.com defines prescribed fire as the controlled application of fire by a team of fire experts under specified weather conditions that help restore health to fire-adapted environments.  Prescribed fires can sometimes be confused with “backfiring” or “controlled burning” which typically refer to different types of prescribed and controlled fires. In many cases by safely reducing excessive amounts of brush, shrubs, and trees, prescribed burning can help reduce the catastrophic damage of wildfire on wildlands and surrounding communities.

In the Golden Hills photo above, the piling and burning of excess fuel was intended to make the fire road safer (this technique is sometimes called road brushing) and also to provide a fire break between Hwy 58 (a major thoroughfare) and the densely populated Golden Hills community.

A recent article by UC Berkeley News calls on more prescribed burns to help reduce the risk of large wildfires from the tree death epidemic across the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Dead trees in the region have left a huge dead fuel load across the area, and could feed massive fire with dangerous and unpredictable fire behavior when the hot and dry conditions return this summer. Prescribed fires, along with mechanical thinning and removing of trees, help reduce fuel loads enough to limit the risk of wildland fires spreading to nearby communities.

Read our past article about tree mortality to learn more here.

Sources:

Berkeley News

Fox5 Prescribed Burn Article

Editor’s Note: This article was originally published in January 2016 and was updated in January 2018

SmokeJumper Fire

Smokejumpers: Flying into the Danger Zone

Introduction

In the Wildland Firefighting community Smokejumpers are widely regarded as one of the most prestigious positions in the fire service. Smokejumpers are transported to fires in fixed wing aircraft, where they jump out at altitude and parachute down to the fire area. This seemingly wild process reduces response time to remote areas of the forest, and has allowed firefighters to access and attack fires long before heavy equipment could arrive. These seasoned firefighters utilize their vast fire knowledge, coupled with hand tools and chainsaws, to build a fire break around these newly sparked isolated incidents. Smokejumpers have a long history of fighting fire in some of the most secluded forested areas of the United States.

SmokeJumper Landing

Smokejumper landing in a very open, and safe landing zone.

History of the Smokejumpers

Beginning in 1917, the United States Forest Service has been utilizing aircraft as a tool for fighting wildland fires. The first experiments in aviation consisted of dropping containers filled with water onto established wildfires in the hopes of achieving extinguishment. Some of the containers tested in these initial drops consisted of, 5 gallon tin cans, paper bags, and 8 gallon oak beer kegs, all of which proved to be failures. In 1934, T.V Pearson proposed using the relatively new technology of parachutes as a means of transportation for firefighters to be dropped near inaccessible wildland fires. This idea was quickly rejected by the government after a few demonstration jumps. In 1939 attention returned again to T.V. Pearson’s idea of parachuting into a fire. During this year 60 jumps were made into rough terrain simulating what it would be like to parachute into a fire area. In 1940, a crew of 6 Smokejumpers was put together in Winthrop, Washington, and another crew of 6 was staffed flying out of Moose Creek, Idaho. These newly appointed Smokejumpers jumped 9 fires during this first season. The results were finally a success with these crews reaching an early containment on these incidents, saving an estimated 30,000 dollars in suppression costs and property damage. This estimation was triple the cost of the initial investment on the Smokejumping program. Since the success of the first season of the program, Smokejumpers have only become more refined and efficient in their tactics and strategies.

SmokeJumper

Smokejumper leaving the plane with parachute ready to deploy.

Uses and Tactics of the Smokejumpers

                             Today this aerial fire suppression force typically jumps with anywhere from 8 to 16 personnel to an incident. The aircraft is loaded with supplies for the Smokejumpers that are designed for these firefighters to be self-sufficient for anywhere from 48 to 72 hours. The aircraft is also staffed with a spotter, which is typically one or two individuals with extensive smoke jumping experience that plays a support role for the firefighters on the ground. The spotter remains in the aircraft after the Smokejumpers make the initial jump to the fire. The spotter then relays critical information about fire activity, weather conditions, and other pertinent information that the Smokejumpers rely on to do their job safely. Once the firefighters are on the ground, they form and carryout the same duties and roles as a hand crew. They use hand tools and chainsaws to remove fuel, such as vegetation and other combustible material, from the fire’s path.

The Smokejumping program has proven to be one of the most influential and impacting projects related to fighting fires in the wildland. By opening up access to some of the most distant fires in the earliest stages, these potentially devastating disasters have a better chance to be suppressed before they cause any damage to lives or property. As time goes on, Smokejumpers tactics, strategies, and equipment will continue to become more refined and efficient. The combination of some of the best fixed wing and rotary aircraft paired with an elite fire fighting crew remains the most cost effective way to combat fires in desolate areas.

Sources:

https://www.fs.fed.us/fire/aviation/av_library/sj_guide/02_history_of_smokejumping.pdf

https://www.fs.fed.us/blogs/smokejumpers-out-sky-and-fire

https://afs.ak.blm.gov/fireops/fire-operations/smokejumpers-training.php

https://www.fs.fed.us/fire/people/smokejumpers/national-sj-users-guide.pdf

 

Is Wildfire Modeling Behind the Times?

Wildfires are one of the most difficult natural disasters to model. Some argue wildfire modeling is 20 years behind hurricane modeling — and that’s not necessarily inaccurate. Hurricanes occur frequently, take several days to form and can be monitored via satellite. Hurricanes are also enormous and can be over 50 miles in radius. They are not obstructed by buildings and, while complex, are affected by fewer variables than wildfires.

Now, consider wildfires. A wildfire can start in seconds by a lightning strike or a dropped cigarette. Oftentimes, the source of ignition is concealed. A wildfire can smolder for days before significant smoke is reported and others can become destructive in a matter of minutes. Even a small burn — just a few acres — can destroy homes and other structures. On top of that, wildfires are affected by a myriad of factors from roads to fuel moisture and type to relative humidity. Sometimes, wildfires are so short-lived that these variables are not recorded; other times, a wildfire covers so many ecosystems that each area of the fire is impacted differently.

File:Propagation model wildfire.png

RedZone Improvements to Wildfire Modeling

Neither hurricane modeling nor wildfire modeling is an easy task. However, wildfires present so many distinct challenges that it’s difficult to even compare the two types of events. Fortunately, wildfire modeling has come a long way in recent years and we at RedZone have made it a priority to make wildfire modeling more accurate than ever before.

Take the Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado, for example. A simplistic wildfire model didn’t account for many of the devastating factors that ultimately destroyed properties. One of these factors was ember showers, which caused homes to burn that were outside of the assumed danger zone. RedZone’s solutions, developed by expert wildfire analysts, take into account these lesser-known variables that can have devastating effects on properties during a wildfire. RedZone wildfire modeling also takes several scenarios into account at the same time. For example, it asks: If the wildfire goes in direction A, how far will it go? If the wildfire goes in direction B, how far will it go? And so on. By taking into account the likelihood and severity of every possible scenario, and every variable that goes with each, we are reaching a new standard for wildfire modeling.

RedZone looks at wildfire modeling from a loss-prevention perspective. Therefore, while a model might be good, if homes are unnecessarily destroyed, the model isn’t good enough. We’re developing wildfire modeling so it’s a standard, scientifically peer-reviewed model, which will prevent the loss of structures, homes and land. This model is mutually beneficial for both homeowners and insurance companies — and insurance companies would likely see an obvious and significant ROI increase from adopting it.

Case Study: Canyon 2 Fire in Anaheim Hills, California. October 9, 2017 – October 17, 2017

The first image shows what the model predicted the fire would do in 24 hours without suppression efforts as a factor. The second image shows the official fire perimeter a full week’s worth of active suppression efforts by both aircraft and hundreds of firefighters. In comparing the model against the final perimeter, you can see that fire suppression efforts were successful in stopping the fire at the eastern ridge line and along Highway 241. The difference is that the model predicted this wildland fuel area to have larger, rapid spread. The model did correctly predict the fire to jump Highway 241 and continue to burn aggressively to the south and west. Having our model results early in this incident could have helped decision makers visualize risk, prioritize response, and aid in evacuations due to the nature of the event.  All in all, the Canyon 2 Fire destroyed 25 homes and burned over 9,000 acres.

Canyon 2 Wildfire Model – first 24 hours of fire progression showing the fire’s extent without suppression

canyon2 final perimeter

Canyon 2 Final Fire Perimeter – shows the fire’s full progression with successful suppression efforts keeping it smaller than it could have been

 


Editor’s Note: This article was originally published in May 2017 and was updated in November 2017

Napa Sonoma Fires

Takeaways from the Napa Sonoma Fire Siege

Earlier this week I published some thoughts about the first 24 hours of the October Napa Sonoma Fire Siege. The unprecedented destruction caused by these fires provoked many questions in the emergency world, insurance, and especially the public. We asked our Senior Fire Liaison Doug Lannon his  thoughts to questions regarding;  1) Why were so many homes lost, 2) Why are these fires different, and 3) Why did we see so many homes burn to the ground, but some trees next to homes are still standing?

Weather

Northern California and the North Bay had been in Red Flag Warning conditions for several consecutive weeks before the fires, and were still under a Red Flag Warning when the fires began.  A severe “Santa Ana” type Foehn wind event coupled with low Relative Humidity and dangerously low fuel moistures were a design for disaster under the circumstances.

  • The winds were coming out of the northeast sustained at 40 mph with gusts up to 75 mph
  • Relative Humidity was in the single digits (RH below 20%, more receptive to ignitions)
  • Hot 80 and 90 degree temperatures contributed to the fuel ignition temperature and fire spread
  • During the autumn months, the North Bay temperatures are cooler and many people leave their windows open, making their homes and businesses even susceptible to ember intrusion

Fuels

Following more than five years of drought, the area received almost three times the normal amount of rain last winter and spring, causing two to three times the amount of grass crop and light flashy fuels to grow, but not enough to raise the living fuel moistures in heavy brush and timber to recover completely.  Also tree mortality is at an all-time high in the North State.

  • Dead fuel moisture sticks were hovering between 1 and 2 (10 is maximum, below 5 is serious)
  • Living fuel moisture was at 57% (80% is serious and below 60% is critical), 240% is maximum
  • Light and flashy fuels were abundant and twice as tall and thick as in normal years
  • Moderate to heavy fuels (brush and oak woodland) were extremely dry and abundant
  • Some homes did not have adequate clearance of native vegetation around the structures
  • Many homes had good clearance from native vegetation, but were surrounded by combustible ornamental shrubbery which also contributed to the fire spread into structures
  • Predominate fuel was grass, brush, and oak woodland which can send heavy embers skyward
  • Oak trees, palm trees, and conifer trees will send burning material high up into the convection column and those hot embers can rain down causing new spot fires ahead of the main fire
  • During the autumn months, oak leaves fall off trees adding to the combustible ground litter which can contribute to ember storms (similar to last year’s Gatlinburg Fires)
  • In some cases, ornamental shrubbery planted around homes appeared to have been well irrigated, causing some plants and trees to survive while homes burned

Topography

The areas where the fires were burning are mountainous, fairly hilly and in some cases steep and rugged.  Most drainages on the west side of the mountain ranges in the area are in perfect alignment for a northeast wind to send the fires down into the valley areas to the southwest and into populated, urban, and commercial areas.  Many homes were built along ridgetops and in canyons and passes adjacent to heavily wooded areas.

santa rosa neighborhood damage from the Napa Sonoma Fire Siege

Digital Globe Imagery released October 14th, 2017 shows whole neighborhoods wiped out in northeast Santa Rosa by the Tubbs Fire.

National Fire Danger Rating System

NFDRS components were at the extreme and very critical levels with the Energy Release Components (ERCs) at the highest levels we have seen in the past 26 years (since ERCs have been monitored).  The ERCs for these fires were greater than 90%.  ERCs relate to the available energy (BTUs) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire.  Daily variations in ERCs are due to changes in moisture content of the various fuels present, both live and dead.  So this number represents the potential heat release per unit area in the flaming zone.  As live fuels cure and dead fuels dry, the ERC values get higher, providing a good reflection of drought conditions.  Ignition Components (IC) were hovering between 90% and 100%.  The IC numbers represent an estimate of the probability of ignition when embers are blown in the wind ahead of the main fire and are able to contact a receptive fuel bed, then each could result in a new fire.  An IC of 90% to 100% means that if 100 embers are blown in the wind and come in contact with a receptive fuel bed, than those embers will result in 90 to 100 new starts (spot fires).  Scientific research is showing that many of the above factors can be attributed to Climate Change or Global Warming.

Multiple Fires and Lack of Available Resources

Multiple fires ignited during an extreme wind event, resulting in fifteen major fires burning at one time in Napa, Sonoma, Mendocino, and Solano Counties.  This quickly overwhelmed local, State, and Federal firefighting resources that would normally be available to respond mutual aid to the area where the fires were burning.  The first fire (Tubbs) along Tubbs Lane near Calistoga was ignited at about 2230 hours on Sunday night and began burning rapidly to the southwest towards Santa Rosa.  As more fires ignited, many resources that were originally responding to the Tubbs Fire were diverted to other new fires.  This trend continued for almost twelve hours, resulting in insufficient resources being assigned to active fires burning in the North Bay, while other in-state and out-of-state resources began responding for mutual aid, but had long travel times.  At the same time, other major fires were igniting, one in Orange County and two in Butte County, further taxing the State’s Master Mutual Aid system.  The causes for these fires are still under investigation and have not been released, but rumor has it that downed powerlines, downed power poles, and downed trees into powerlines were largely responsible for causing several of the fires.

Ember Storms

Abundant light, flashy, heavy, and ground litter fuels (dead leaves off of trees, etc.) coupled with the very high winds began blowing burning embers into receptive fuel beds.  This phenomenon was definitely a major contributor to the rapid fire spread, creating spotting.  Many homes and commercial structures had combustible materials next to and in close proximity to the structures, allowing the many spot fires created by embers to spread into those structures.

Rapid Evacuations

The majority of the fires were ignited at nighttime or in the early morning hours, catching people asleep and in their beds.  In many cases the fires were rapidly encroaching on structures when people were awakened and made aware of the hazard, causing many people to evacuate with only the clothes they were wearing and without closing some doors, windows, garage doors, etc.  This left homes more susceptible to ember intrusion, causing some homes to burn from the inside out.

destructive fires list showing four additions from the Napa Sonoma Fire Siege

An updated (Nov 1, 2017) look at California’s 20 most destructive wildfires with four fires added (in red) from last month’s Napa Sonoma fire siege.

 

Written by: Douglas J. Lannon, Senior Fire Liaison, RedZone Disaster Intelligence, LLC.

bark beetle tree

California Tree Mortality At An Unprecedented Level

Tree Mortality Overview

According to U.S. Forest Service study done in the summer of 2017, about 6.3 billion dead trees are still standing in 11 Western states, an increase of half a billion from five years ago. 103 million trees have died in California alone since 2010. So what’s happening to the trees? Well, established trees are normally fairly resilient to seasonal changes in their environment, but the last five years of drought in CA coupled with climate change impacts have imposed several stressors acting on the trees at the same time. Most native California trees are fairly resilient to drought, but a prolonged drought weakens the trees and exposes them to pests and disease that a healthier tree could normally fight off. A recent story by the CBS San Francisco discussed the situation in the Sierra National Forest with two Forestry experts there. They stated that there are more dead trees than live ones and will be dealing with the tree mortality there for many years to come.

Tree Mortality Danger

When a tree dies, its wood dries out and becomes very flammable.  When building a campfire, there’s a reason we use downed wood instead of chopping down live trees. Healthy, living trees have a relatively high moisture content.  This helps trees survive a wildfire and slows the progress of that wildfire. When tree death occurs from old age or other reasons, standing dead or fallen trees provide a large amount of dry fuel for wildfires, encouraging fire growth and hindering efforts to put it out. Not only are decomposing trees more flammable, they can also present a safety hazard to firefighters. Specifically, dead trees can fall during fires (which have resulted in deaths), and fallen trees can be an obstacle preventing vehicles and firefighters from reaching or escaping a wildfire.

bark beetle-caused tree mortality

Bark Beetle impact from 2012 US Forest Service report

What’s Happening to the Trees?

Established trees are fairly resilient to seasonal changes in their environment, so it is difficult to understand exactly what is causing so much tree death in California. Perhaps not surprisingly, several stressors have been acting on the trees at the same time.

Drought:

California saw a five-year historic drought that only just ended this last year. Most native California trees are fairly resilient to drought, but this prolonged drought weakened the trees and made them more susceptible to beetles and disease. Two deadly invaders that a healthier tree could normally fight off.

tree mortality in Julian

Tree death (brown trees) near Julian in San Diego County

Pests:

Tree bark is the main defense for trees against pests, disease, and fires. Bark beetles burrow into the bark and expose the trees to other pests or diseases, and can reduce their fire resiliency. Different types of bark beetles act as pests to different types of trees. The Pines and Conifers in the Sierra Nevada Mountains have been decimated by these beetles. Beetle-kill trees have been blamed for prolonging the firefight on the Beaver Creek Fire in Northern Colorado and also the Cedar Fire in California’s Southern Sierra Nevada Range. Tree deaths due to these beetles have been attributed to several major campaign fires across the west over the past few summers. The map above shows hard-hit beetle kill timber forests across the west (in red), which includes both the Cedar and Beaver Creek fire areas.

Disease:

The coast live oak trees have been exposed to Sudden Oak Death, which is caused by a non-native tree fungus. This fungus and other non-native diseases are responsible for an estimated 5 – 10 million oak tree deaths. Many dead trees were identified in the areas where the Soberanes fire near Big Sur is currently burning and have likely contributed (along with major drought) to its acreage eclipsing 100,000 this week.

Plans for Tree Death Prevention

Drought, pests, and disease all put stress on otherwise healthy trees.  When these stresses are combined, we can expect to see continued tree death at unprecedented scales. California has programs to both reduce the amount of tree death and to remove dead trees as a means of reducing fire danger.  Lately, resources have been too scarce to keep up with the levels of tree deaths plaguing the state. Learn more about the epidemic and what is being done to prevent further problems here.


Sources:

www.fs.fed.us

www.fire.ca.gov

www.yale.edu

The Denver Post

Editor’s Note: This article was originally published in September 2016 and was updated in September 2017

helo wildfire

Wildfire 101: Modern Warning Systems

In the United States, effective systems are in place to help us plan for, respond to, evacuate from, and cope with dangerous and difficult emergency events.  Traditionally in the late twentieth century, mass media (television and radio) were relied upon to inform the general public of impending or ongoing dangerous situations. Previously, older technology like sirens were utilized for warning of impending situations, especially severe weather. While all are still prevalent today, much of the public were left uniformed if not within nearby proximity to one of these alert platforms. Today we have many more options at our disposal.

Modern Warning Systems

In June 2006, following criticism over the government’s response to Hurricane Katrina, President George W. Bush signed Executive Order 13407, ordering the Secretary of Homeland Security to establish a new program to integrate and modernize the nation’s existing population warning systems. Installment began on a nationwide system now known as the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System, or IPAWS.  IPAWS is an alert and warning infrastructure that allows Federal, State, and local authorities to alert and warn the public about serious emergencies using the Emergency Alert System (EAS), Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), and other public alerting systems from a single interface.

EAS is used to send emergency messages through cable, broadcast, and satellite television, as well as landline phone recordings. WEA refers to messages, similar to text messages, which appear as a notification to your mobile phone. They are sent by an authorized government authority through your mobile provider. Registration is not required for the national alerts through IPAWS, but a compatible phone and provider are required. The message contains information such as the type of alert, the time of the alert, the issuing agency, and any steps the recipient should take. The types of alerts include AMBER alerts for child abductions, extreme weather alerts, Presidential alerts during a national emergency, or other threatening emergencies in your area. Who receives the alerts is based on connectivity to the affected area’s cellular towers, so the alert is determined by the current location of the cellular device and not the address of the wireless phone owner. Of course, the benefit of this is if you are away from home and an emergency occurs in the area you are visiting, you will still receive the alert through the local cellular tower.

Reverse 911 sends a warning to the public of emergency situations

Reverse 911 is widely used for local emergency situations to be broadcast to email, home, and mobile phones

Other Alert Systems

Many local government agencies have additional alert services that offer greater detail to local emergencies through recorded messages, text alerts, or emails. In order to take full advantage, make sure to check local emergency services options (such as Reverse 911). Often, a registration process is required before you will receive the alerts. Similarly, other modern alert systems allow for notifications of other local emergency situations that also could prompt action.  A few examples:

  • PulsePoint is a mobile application which connects the local dispatch system with CPR-trained bystanders (and the location of the closest AED) regarding a nearby cardiac emergency event… effectively enabling “citizen superheroes.”
  • Google’s ‘Waze’ mobile app is a social-mapping-based means of reporting real-time accidents and traffic alerts.
  • The Incident Paging Network has also proven to be a useful tool for being alerted regionally within the network for a wide range of event types.
  • Here at RedZone we especially appreciate the advent of public alert and advance warning regarding an impending or ongoing disaster. Our RZAlerts are built on the success of this premise.

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_Public_Alert_and_Warning_System

fema.gov/integrated-public-alert-warning-system

Is Wildfire Modeling Behind the Times?

Wildfires are one of the most difficult natural disasters to model. Some argue wildfire modeling is 20 years behind hurricane modeling — and that’s not inaccurate. Hurricanes occur frequently, take several days to form and can be monitored via satellite. Hurricanes are also enormous and can be over 50 miles in radius. They are not obstructed by buildings and, while complex, are affected by fewer variables than wildfires.

Now, consider wildfires. A wildfire can start in seconds by a lightning strike or a dropped cigarette. Oftentimes, the source of ignition is concealed. A wildfire can smolder for days before significant smoke is reported and others can become destructive in a matter of minutes. A small burn — just a few acres — can destroy homes and other structures. Wildfires are affected by a myriad of factors from roads to fuel moisture and type to relative humidity. Sometimes, wildfires are so short-lived that these variables are not recorded; other times, a wildfire covers so many ecosystems that each area of the fire is impacted differently.

File:Propagation model wildfire.png

RedZone Improvements to Wildfire Modeling

Neither hurricane modeling nor wildfire modeling is an easy task. However, wildfires present so many distinct challenges that it’s difficult to even compare the two types of storms. But wildfire modeling isn’t inaccurate — and we’re making strides to make wildfire modeling more accurate than ever before.

Take the Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado, for example. A simplistic wildfire model didn’t account for many of the devastating factors that ultimately destroyed properties. One of these factors was ember showers, which caused homes to burn that were outside of the assumed danger zone. RedZone’s solutions, developed by expert wildfire analysts, take into account these lesser-known variables that can have devastating effects on properties during a wildfire. RedZone wildfire modeling also takes several scenarios into account at the same time. For example, it asks: If the wildfire goes in direction A, how far will it go? If the wildfire goes in direction B, how far will it go? And so on. By taking into account the likelihood and severity of every possible scenario, and every variable that goes with each, we are reaching a new standard for wildfire modeling.

RedZone looks at wildfire modeling from a loss-prevention perspective. Therefore, while a model might be good, if homes are unnecessarily destroyed, the model isn’t good enough. We’re developing wildfire modeling so it’s a standard, scientifically peer-reviewed model, which will prevent the loss of structures, homes and land. This model is mutually beneficial for both homeowners and insurance companies — and insurance companies would likely see an obvious and significant ROI increase from adopting it.

The good news is that researchers around the world are working to develop this “holy grail” of wildfire modeling software. Between RedZone, researchers at the University of California at San Diego and other scientists, we expect that wildfire modeling will soon match the accuracy of hurricane modeling.

Rain fuels fire

Does Heavy Rain Actually Fuel Wildfires?

It may seem contradictory, but the recent drought-quenching rains seen across much of the west may actually lead to a higher potential for wildfires.  Thus far, 2017 has brought severe winter storms and record rainfall. These drenching rains have been a welcome respite to many areas suffering from multi-year drought conditions.  The excess water, however, has also brought flooding, landslides and the potential for increased wildfire risk.

Fine Fuel Growth

In areas that have experienced prolonged drought conditions or recent wildfires, rains often lead to an explosive growth of new vegetation.  Much of this vegetation growth is in the form of native and non-native grasses. Moist fuels are an ideal fire retardant, but these grasses are very susceptible to drying out after just a short period of low humidity and high temperatures. Once dried, these “fine fuels” are easy to ignite. Something as small as an errant cigarette butt or a spark from a vehicle tail pipe is a sufficient catalyst to spark a wildfire. Once active, these wildfires can move rapidly and are prone to “spotting”. Spotting occurs when embers are blown to nearby fuels and cause multiple ignitions, making the wildfire difficult to contain.

Rain fuels fire

Rapidly Spreading Fire in Fine Fuels.

Preparation

The ease with which these fine fuels can quickly dry and lead to hazardous conditions is one of the main factors fire managers consider when scheduling prescribed burns. Firefighters use prescribed burns to reduce the build up of fine fuels, thus decreasing the risk for wildfires in the future. Prescribed burns can also be used to establish fire breaks so that a small fire doesn’t become unmanageable. Individual homeowners can help with fire mitigation efforts by mowing grasses around their property and creating a defensible space.

Weather Outlook

Few meteorologists predicted the unprecedented rainfall that has impacted the majority of the United States so far this year. The recent storms have saturated fuels, likely delaying the onset of fire season. The threat, however, will not be all together eliminated. Long range weather predictions are vague at best. The Old Farmer’s Almanac suggests that the majority of the United States should see a hotter, but wetter than normal summer. The National Interagency Fire Center is also somewhat optimistic, predicting a delay of fire season until at least June. It remains to be seen if the recent storms will be enough to help combat the increasingly hot summers and severity of recent wildfires.

Sources

https://www.firescience.gov/projects/05-2-1-13/project/05-2-1-13_05-2-1-13_JFSP_Final_Report_05-2-1-13.pdf

https://www.fs.fed.us/fire/management/rx.html

http://hppr.org/post/last-years-rains-bring-increased-fire-risk-2017

http://www.auburn.edu/academic/forestry_wildlife/fire/fuels_effect.htm

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/heavy-spring-rain-has-boosted-fuel-loads-ahead-of-fire-season-20161023-gs8jvy.html