Fire and Rain

Yet another winter storm is slated to send more rain to Southern California this week and we at RedZone think it warrants a little inside info on the risks of post-fire debris flows. The nation is experiencing its second El Nino effect in three years with it forecast to last in to the summer. What that means, is a higher potential for land-moving rainfall rates in areas where fires have scorched the landscape. After last years tragic events that occurred in the Thomas fire burn scar, officials have not taken the potential of these continued storms lightly. So far this winter, residents have been evacuated near the Holy, Thomas, Cranston, Napa/Sonoma, and Woolsey fires (all recent burn scars from the last couple years).

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Woolsey Fire, from down the coastline (Source: Forest Service, UDSA)

Woolsey Fire in Retrospect

In Mid-December, Senior Fire Liaison Doug Lannon and I spent a few days surveying the damage from the Woolsey Fire. We toured the 16 mile long fire area with the aim of digesting the fire’s destructive path from a fire behavior and investigative perspective. We were fortunate enough to gain access to a wide range of properties with a range of extent of impact from Bell Canyon all the way to homes right above the Malibu Coast.  After a few days of surveying, a familiar story unfolded, yet another destructive and uncontrollable wind-driven Santa Ana fire in California. Read more

2018 Atlantic Storm Paths

A Look Back at the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2018 Hurricane Season Quick Stats

Each spring, several predictive services release their forecasts for the upcoming Hurricane Season, which officially runs June 1 – Nov 30. While named storms can form outside of this range, they are significantly weaker and rarely reach hurricane strength levels.

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2018 Fire Season in Review

2018’s fire season was another record breaking year; in particular, California was absolutely devastated in terms of lives and property lost. According to the National Interagency Fire Center in 2018, 8,582,609 acres were burned by 55,911 different wildfire starts throughout the United States. In comparison to the 2017 fire season, there were 991,924 fewer acres burned in 2018, from 8,699 less starts than 2017. These statistics paint a picture that this past season was not as severe in terms of wildfires, this could not be further from the truth.

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7.0 Magnitude Earthquake Rocks Anchorage, Alaska

The morning of November 30th, 2018, at 8:29 AM local time, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake shook the city of Anchorage, Alaska. The origin of the quake was 7 miles north of the city, resulting in the residents of Anchorage feeling the full intensity of this earthquake. Luckily, the epicenter was at a depth of 27 miles into the Earth’s crust. The depth of the origin allowed for the seismic energy of the earthquake to diminish slightly while making the 27-mile vertical journey before wreaking havoc on the surface.

The Shake Map shows the extent and magnitude in the surrounding areas during the 7.0 earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska,.

The Shake Map shows the extent and magnitude in the surrounding areas during the 7.0 earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska,.

Upon reaching the surface, the resulting damages included widespread power outages, severe damage to roadways and other transportation infrastructure, and internal damage to residential and commercial structures. Immediately after the quake hit, the USGS released figures that contained frightening numbers depicting the probability of economic losses. The figure below shows that, according to the USGS predicted losses, there is a 35 percent chance of damages ranging from $100 million – $1 billion. The data goes on to show that there is a 20 percent chance that the economic losses could very well total over one billion dollars!

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Immediately after the quake and ongoing through this week, the area continues to be inundated with relentless aftershocks that still hold immense power. As of this morning, the area has been the recipient of over 2,700 aftershocks and tremors, ranging in magnitude from 1 up to 5. There is still potential for an aftershock to be nearly as powerful as the original incident itself, which would cause even more damage during the recovery process.

Looking Back

In 1964, Anchorage fell victim to a 9.2 magnitude quake that caused damage to such an extent that certain parts of the city were unrecognizable. This earthquake killed 15 people during the event and another 124 from the resultant tsunami. Only one earthquake in recorded history has been more powerful (9.5 magnitude in Chile 1960). In the wake of this devastating event, the changes to the building codes may have resulted in massive economic saves in relation to building loss during this most recent quake. One of the key ideas that resulted from the research in the aftermath of the 9.2 magnitude event was the concept of integrating ductility into modern architecture and design. Ductility is the ability to bend without breaking, which helps absorb some of the seismic motion during an earthquake. One way this could be achieved in the case of concrete structures would be ensuring the right amount of steel reinforcement is located in the correct areas of the structure. This is just one example of the engineering constructs resulting from the Earthquake Hazard Reduction Act of 1977, which was sparked by the enormous 1964 earthquake.

Sources:

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2018/12/06/2788-and-counting-when-do-tremors-stop-being-aftershocks-and-start-being-new-earthquakes/

https://www.curbed.com/2018/12/3/18124154/alaska-earthquake-anchorage-building-codes

https://earthquake.alaska.edu/anchorage-m70-what-we-know-so-far

https://www.pe.com/2014/04/07/earthquakes-alaska-disaster-jolted-nation-into-making-changes/

Four Interesting Links From A Wild Week in California

Here we are dealing with yet another crazy autumn week of wildfire in California. As we noted earlier this fall, annually, Santa Ana Wind events cause new fire ignitions to become dangerously uncontrollable and have statistically caused the fastest-moving and most destructive fires on record. Now, barely a year removed from last year’s devastating October Fire Siege  Northern California is dealing with the Camp Fire, now the deadliest and most destructive fire in history. Similarly, not even a year removed from the giant Thomas Fire in Ventura County, several nearby coastal communities are dealing with their own widespread evacuations and impacts from the destructive Woolsey fire. RedZone has been working tirelessly monitoring, updating, and aiding our customers in response to both of these unique and tragic events. While tracking the fires, we’ve happened upon some really sad, interesting, and heroic stories. Here are a few we found worthy to share.


Barely a year removed from last year’s devastating October Fire Siege Northern California is dealing with the Camp Fire, now by far the deadliest and most destructive fire in history.


The Search continues on Paradise Fire for the Missing

Vice News investigates the intense search for answers on hundreds of missing people in the wake of last week’s Camp Fire. Many residents are still searching for missing loved ones. Exacerbated by the fact that the 26,000 person city is known for being a large retirement community making success of evacuation even more problematic.


Ten Hours in Hell

Bill Roth was home with his fiancee and dog when the Camp Fire started. After getting them out, he stayed to try saving his house. He spent ten hours in what he called, “hell”.

A second survivor who’s friends weren’t so lucky: https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/He-couldn-t-save-his-friends-Now-Camp-Fire-13382947.php#photo-16473858


The Controversial Case for Letting Malibu Burn

damage_proxy_map_malibu_fire

The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, created this Damage Proxy Map (DPM) depicting areas of Southern California that are likely damaged (shown by red and yellow pixels) as a result of the Woolsey Fire.

Professor Mike Davis has long been infamous for his stance on letting Malibu burn. This stance came around again as this month’s Woolsey fire has destroyed over 1,000 structures in exactly the fire he predicted. What’s your take on Davis’ stance that “the broader public should not have to pay a cent to protect or rebuild mansions on sites that will inevitably burn every 20 or 25 years”?

Read the following the for the recent story and backstory.

Recent Article: https://qz.com/1468286/mike-daviss-case-for-letting-malibu-burn-is-sadly-relevant-again/

Original Take: http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/misc/misc/SoCalFires.html


Before and After the Fire: Disaster Imagery

before and after malibu fire

Geospatial Intelligence Center has provided pre and post event imagery from last weeks fires.

Pan around or search for an address on their Esri-powered site:

https://maps.geointel.org/app/gic-public/

Typhoon Yutu

Typhoon Yutu: The Most Powerful Storm of 2018 To Hit a U.S. Territory

On October 21st, 2018, Typhoon Yutu began its development as a tropical depression, east of the Northern Mariana Islands, a US commonwealth.  Just hours later, the storm reached tropical storm strength over the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean. During the period of the next three days Yutu would intensify to a Category 5 Typhoon. Around 2:00 AM on October 25th, Yutu made landfall on the Northern Mariana Islands. Satellite imagery shows the eye of the storm passing directly over the island Tinian (population 3,136), completely encompassing it as the devastation within the eye-wall continued on the surrounding islands of Saipan (population 52,263), Rota (population 2,477), and Guam.  The damage received during the typhoon’s arrival would leave the island communities nearly unrecognizable. Yutu would be recorded as the strongest storm to impact a US territory in 2018, and the strongest to impact the Northern Mariana Islands in recorded history.

Typhoon, Hurricane, Cat 5

This image depicts the Northern Mariana Island chain’s location in the midst of Typhoon Yutu.

Super Typhoon Yutu’s Conditions Upon Landfall in the Northern Mariana Islands

Sustained Winds: Sustained 180 mph, Gusting over 200 mph

Storm Surge: Up to 20 feet

Rainfall: Up to 10 inches

The tone of the statements released by officials leading up to the storms arrival was indicative of the damages that would be seen in the days prior to Yutu’s landfall. The National Weather Service office in Guam released this frightening message before the storms arrival, “Most homes will sustain severe damage, with potential for complete roof failure and wall collapse. Most industrial buildings will be destroyed.” These comments proved to be unnervingly valid once the storm had passed.

After the preliminary aerial damage assessments were completed on October 29th, the figures shown below give insight to just how severe the damages are.

Damage inspection, Hurricane, Typhoon

This figure shows the results of the preliminary damage inspections. Officials conducted these inspections during the first fly over after the storm had passed.

These aerial images released by DigitalGlobe give further testament to the absolute devastation that occurred in the disaster area.

It is estimated that these communities will be without power for months in the wake of Typhoon Yutu. Saipan currently has 99 percent of its community without power, Tinian is 100 percent out of power, and the small island of Rota has restored power to 99 percent of the island.

In the 96 hours after the storm’s passing, 121 storm related emergency room visits were recorded. Unfortunately two lives have been lost from this community during this natural disaster.

Yutu continued on its path of destruction after it passed over the Mariana Islands, its next stop, the Philippines. Even though the storm’s intensity, in terms of wind speeds was not as great in this impact area, the devastation was still staggering. With the Philippines  already saturated with moisture from the Typhoon Mangkhut, the unwelcomed rainfall from Yutu exacerbated the troubles for locals in the mountainous areas of the Philippines. As the storm hit, the rainfall caused massive landslides throughout the countryside. Roads throughout the impact area have been blocked by debris making recovery efforts difficult for the first responders. As the recovery process is continues, it truly paints the picture of how bad these events really are for these communities.

Read further:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/super-typhoon-yutu-destruction-1.4879117

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/typhoon-yutu-philippines-1.4883540

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/24/category-typhoon-yutu-with-mph-winds-is-set-ravage-us-territories-saipan-tinian

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144137/super-typhoon-yutu

https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/24/extreme-category-typhoon-yutu-makes-devastating-landfall-northern-mariana-islands-us-commonwealth/

 

 

Structural damage from the Magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Chile in 2016 (Source: Expansion - CNN)

What is the difference between an earthquake’s magnitude and intensity?

Think about sitting around a campfire. The fire emits a measurable level of heat, and the nearer you sit to it, the hotter the fire feels. If you are farther from the fire, the heat is less intense. This simple example can explain common earthquake measurements – magnitude and intensity – and what these earthquake scales mean.

Richter Scale

Consider, once again, the campfire. This temperature is measurable and absolute. When an earthquake occurs, the Richter scale measures the magnitude of the earthquake at its epicenter. The Richter scale was developed in 1935 as a way to quantify the strength of earthquakes. It is a logarithmic scale based on the amplitude of the waves recorded by seismographs. A logarithmic scale means a magnitude increase of 1 relates to an energy increase by a factor of 10. An earthquake measuring a 4.0 on the Richter scale is 10 times as strong as a 3.0!

Seismograph at Weston Observatory at Boston College, Weston, Massachusetts

Earthquake seismograph at Weston Observatory at Boston College, Weston, Massachusetts.

 

Modified Mercali Intensity Scale

Now, you know the closer to the campfire you sit, the hotter the flames feel on your skin. This generally holds true with earthquakes as well. Typically, the nearer the epicenter the stronger the ground shaking you would feel; however, there are other factors that affect the intensity of the earthquake you feel at your location. The type of earthquake, bedrock the shockwaves traveled through, and amplitude of the shockwaves from the earthquake are a few of these factors. The intensity you feel is measured on a scale called the Modified Mercali Intensity Scale (MMI). The MMI scale ranges from “Not Felt” and “Weak Shaking” up to “Violent” and “Extreme” with well-built structures suffering damage.

USGS map and intensity scale for 1971 San Fernando Earthquake (Magnitude - red-circled, epicenter - star, intensity - table)

USGS earthquake map and intensity scale for 1971 San Fernando Earthquake (Magnitude – red-circled, epicenter – star, Modified Mercali Intensity scale – table)

Other Scales Around the World

While the Richter scale is widely known and the MMI scale is used in the United States, there are other magnitude and intensity scales in use around the world. The Japanese Meteorological Agency uses a separate calculation for shallow earthquakes (depth < 60km) which has been shown to be reasonable when the magnitude is 4.5-7.5; however, this magnitude measurement has historically underestimated larger magnitude tremors. Additionally, Japan and Taiwan use the Shindo intensity scale which has significant correlation to the MMI scale. During the middle to late 20th century, the USSR, East Germany, and Czecholsovakia established and utilized the Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik scale (MSK) to evaluate shaking and effects from earthquakes. This scale was built upon in the 1990s by the European Seismological Commission as they shifted to implement the European Macroseismic Scale for European countries. The MSK scale continues to be employed in Russia, India, Israel, and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

You can read more about some of these other scales here:

JMA Shindo intensity scale: https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/inttable.html

MSK Scale: https://www.gktoday.in/gk/various-earthquake-scales/

 

Sources:

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/mercalli.php

https://www.japan-talk.com/jt/new/why-japan-doesnt-use-magnitude-for-earthquakes

RedZone Disaster Intelligence

October Brings Highest Risk of Destruction to California

This past weekend, from Saturday into Monday morning, much of the Northern California Bay Area was under a Red Flag Warning due to strong winds around 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Despite much of the country receiving some level of precipitation recently, California remains just above the drought threshold. The gusty winds and dry fuels the state sees every fall leads to heightened fire weather conditions this time of year. Fortunately, with this strongest wind event thus far this Fall, fire agencies across the region responded rapidly and en masse to any new reports of ignition.

“Of the twenty most destructive wildfires in CA history, eleven of them have happened in October and another three in November or December.”

Transitioning out of Western Fire Season

Most of the Western fire season began the seasonal transition out of its peak in early September with fall’s cooler temperatures and precipitation. October and November mark another transition as the focus typically shifts to California  where fire activity remains a major concern with summer-dried fuels and occasional Foehn wind events develop across California until winter rains come.

October Fire potential

Significant Wildland Fire Potential for October 2018

Brief Look Back to October 2017

Monday, October 8th, marked one year since 21 major wildfires started across Northern California and devastated the Napa-Sonoma area. Collectively the fires burned more than 245,000 acres over the course of the month. The Northern California Firestorm, as it came to be called, destroyed nearly 9,000 structures and was responsible for 44 civilian fatalities and caused 14.5 billion dollars in damages.

The fire spread was remarkable as ember showers spread from house to house throughout several communities and the fires moved at record-setting speeds. Gusting and strong winds were an instrumental driving force behind the massive levels of damage caused by the conflagrations. What wasn’t record setting was this type of fire weather happening in October or later in California. As the table below shows, of the twenty most destructive wildfires in CA history, eleven of them have happened in October and another three in November or December.

14 top fires have happened in October and later

14 of the Top 20 Most Destructive California Wildfires have started in October or later

Obviously all that late season activity means, historically, the Western Fire Season is far from over in California. Fire Departments remain at full staffing, on the ready, with ears perked to every new start that could be the next big one…especially with the fire weather possibilities this time of year. RedZone does the same, and those of you in the insurance world reading this, so too should you. Those 14 wildfires have collectively caused tens of billions of dollars in damage over the years.

Read Further

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-santa-ana-winds-20180925-story.html

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fire2/?wfo=mtr

https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/red-flag-warning-this-weekend-in-parts-of-bay-area/1502972515

Hurricane Florence Starts its Assault on North Carolina

Hurricane Florence Current Situation

As of: 2100 UTC, Sep 13nd, 2018

  • Location: 100 miles ESE of Wilmington, NC
  • Size: Category 2
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph
  • Present Movement: WNW at 5 mph
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 955 mb
  • Impact: Up to 11 feet of storm surge, heavy rain causing flash flooding
  • Incident Page: NHC Public Advisory
  • News Article: WunderBlog

Hurricane Florence Outlook

Hurricane Florence has started to impact North Carolina’s barrier islands. As it reaches landfall, the storm has been downgraded to a Category 2 Hurricane, but don’t let the category number fool you. Florence remains a massive and devastating hurricane. The storm continues to grow in area and is predicted to impact a large portion of the North and South Carolina coasts. Maximum sustained winds are hovering around 100 mph, with some higher gusts. Hurricane force winds extend up to 80 miles from the eye of the storm. Some coastal areas are already seeing storm surge flooding.  At the peak of the event, areas around river outflows could be dealing with storm surges up to 11 feet. The greatest storm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras where river outflow will meet the storm surge inundation.  Inland areas are not necessarily in the clear from the damage. Significant flash flooding and prolonged river flooding could extend as far as the Appalachians through early next week as the storm moves inland.

Nearly 2 million people are under hurricane Warning. Authorities are cautioning residents in evacuation zones to get out because first responders will not be able to perform rescues during the storm. Power outages are already affecting around 100,000 people and are expected to get worse as this incident continues.

Click here to look back on this year’s hurricane season outlook to see how the predictions are panning out.

View of the storm path and cone of uncertainty.

 

Predicted Flash Flooding Risk