Despite the trend of unprecedented wildfire destruction and the predictions for another above average potential for significant wildfire activity, the 2019 wildfire season was significantly less destructive. 2018 recorded over 49,000 fires for a total acreage of just of 4.5 million. The total acreage burned was almost half that of the previous 2 years and short of the 10 year average by more than 2 million acres.
Just sixteen miles south of last week’s Saddleridge Fire, the Palisades Fire burned 40 acres between Palisades Dr and Charmel Ln in steep terrain yesterday afternoon, quickly spreading and prompting evacuations of a neighborhood of Pacific Palisades. Fortunately, hard work from air and ground crews saved the 200 homes that were threatened from damage or destruction and all have since been repopulated. This morning’s incident briefing portrayed a mop-up and perimeter-control day ahead of the crews. A direct ground attack is the main plan for the two divisions, with dozer(s) cleared to improve a nearby fire road, and an Structure Protection Group working the previously evacuated neighborhoods.
Below are summaries from the National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, provided by the National Interagency Fire Center, for the period of October 2019 through January 2020. The full outlook can be located here which will give more in depth picture of US fire weather projection.
Fall Means Santa Ana Winds
Annually, the onset of the fall and winter seasons brings the highest chance for Southern California’s famed Santa Ana winds. Historically, the worst fires in Southern California in terms of speed of growth and destruction are linked to these hot, dry wind events. The last two years, a strong and persistent Santa Ana event was a major player in the spread of both 2017’s Thomas fire in Ventura and Santa Barbara and last year’s Woolsey Fire in Malibu.
Tropical Storm Imelda quickly organized, formed, and made landfall all today. Imelda was the ninth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Season. As it’s set to creep slowly north, the storm could drop a dozen or more inches of rain in Houston and Galveston this week. As a result multiple areas are under TS and Flood Warnings and a Flood Watch.
Tropical Storm Dorian is moving WNW over islands of the Caribbean, bringing winds and rain for Puerto Rico Dominican next. The storm is forecast to stay a Tropical Storm force over the next several days with the long term path over the Bahamas and towards Florida by the weekend.