hurricane harvey spins in gulf

2018 Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

Hurricane season arrived early this year, as Subtropical Storm Alberto became the first named storm of the season late last week. Alberto ruined a Memorial Day weekend for the majority of the Gulf Coast as it doused the area with rain and even flooding. This anomaly subtropical storm actually came slightly earlier than the official start date of hurricane season. The official hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th for the Atlantic Ocean, and May 15th through November 30th for Eastern Pacific Ocean. After last fall’s major hurricane impacts, RedZone wanted to relay what the hurricane forecasts are predicting about the upcoming hurricane season.

Colorado State University releases an “Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability” report each year. This report is based off models that incorporate 30 years of atmospheric conditions, and hurricane data for statistical analysis. The current conditions in the Atlantic Ocean seem to be in a weak La Niña currently. This means that the oceans temperatures are relatively cooler than average. This is not conducive for hurricane formation and strengthening.  As a reminder, ENSO, otherwise known as the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, is the periodic fluctuation of sea surface temperature. The worry from the Oceanic forecast, though, is that the ENSO transitional phase will occur during the summer months. The thinking is, the transition from La Niña conditions into even a mild El Niño (warmer sea surface temperatures) could result in above normal hurricane activity this hurricane season.

named storm predictions

This figure is the results from the model that Colorado State uses to predict the hurricane forecast.

This figure depicts the final analysis made by Colorado State University in totality regarding numbers related to the upcoming hurricane season. As you can see this year is expected to be above the 30 year average in every category that is shown. Below is a figure depicting FEMA’s modeling outlook for the Hurricane season. FEMA’s model shows very little variation from what Colorado State’s results were.

NOAA Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA’s Hurricane Season Outlook is predicting an average to above average year

Sources:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/27/us/weather-storm-alberto/index.html

https://www.livescience.com/57671-hurricane-season.html

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/enso-tech.php

RedZone Disaster Intelligence

How Can Technology Assist Insurance Carriers With Disaster Moratoriums?

Have you ever wondered how home insurance companies deal with writing new policies in an ongoing disaster zone? Well the truthful answer is they don’t. For instance, when a large wildland fire is threatening homes or has the potential to, insurance carriers place a moratorium on the surrounding landscape. A moratorium is a temporary, but indefinite hold on writing any new home insurance policies within the blanket area that is declared. The purpose of this practice is to stop new customers who aren’t covered for fire, or other disaster related damages, from buying a policy right before the home is damaged. The problem is the geographic regions that are typically chosen for a moratorium are too large. The regions that are chosen usually include areas that are not threatened by the disaster in any way shape or form. This leaves an undesirable gap in business for both the insurers and possible policy holders. Here at RedZone we like to focus on utilizing technology coupled with expertise to solve complicated problems such as this one.

Wildfire

                With advances in current wildfire modeling, insurance companies can have a more precise understanding of what is taking place on the ground currently, as well as what is likely to take place in the upcoming hours of the fire. Wildfire modeling accounts for the essential driving factors behind a wildfire so it can accurately depict where the fire is heading. You can read more about the aspects taken into account in RedZone’s Wildfire model here. By using a wildfire model, insurance companies can reduce the size of the geographic areas that are placed under a moratorium. Then the carriers will have an understanding of where the fire will be moving. This benefits both parties involved in many ways. If a home is not covered for wildfire, and a fire breaks out near the home it may spark an interest for the homeowner to obtain coverage on their home for fire. If the area that the home is located in is under a moratorium, the homeowner will not be able to purchase a policy for that type of coverage.

Canyon 2 Wildfire Model – first 24 hours without suppression

canyon2 final perimeter

Canyon 2 Fire Perimeter – shows the fire’s extent in the first 48 hours with suppression

Hurricane

                In the case of hurricanes, insurance carriers are even more precautious about writing new business when a storm of hurricane magnitude is approaching. The process of putting a moratorium in place for a storm begins when the National Weather Service declares a low pressure system to be of a tropical storm magnitude. You can learn more about hurricane formation and power at RedZone’s Blog on Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Insurance companies immediately put a moratorium into effect for the projected zones that will be impacted by the incoming storm. These areas range from zip codes to counties and even expanding to encompass entire states that could possibly be impacted by the storm. A large portion of homes that are located in a moratorium of that size will likely not be affected by flooding or wind damage from the storm.

One of the ways that GIS (Geographic Information Systems) can help with this problem is with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Dataset. When loaded into a GIS this data will depict what the terrain on the ground will look like. These elevation layers coupled with flood plain data would give an accurate depiction of the level of threat to a structure. What has to be taken into account is that each storm is different. The flood data chosen must accurately match the expected rainfall from the storm in the general location. One solution is to utilize the most severe flood data available, so that the estimations are on the safer side. Another factor that needs to be considered is the damage that occurs from wind during one of these events. GIS is capable of running buffers based on the projected storm path. A buffer coinciding with the relative wind speeds that are capable of damaging homes would be a safe way of creating more accurate moratorium zones during a hurricane. 

NOAA track Oct8

NOAA Potential Track Map issued Thursday Oct 10th, 8pm eastern

Source(s):

http://wiseinsurancegroup.com/insurance-moratoriums-binding-prohibitions/

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2017/12/18/474612.htm

https://www.jebrown.net/content/169/brush-fire-moratorium

http://velocityrisk.com/commercial-insurance/moratorium-policy

https://www.propertycasualty360.com/2016/10/06/how-the-insurance-industry-prepares-for-hurricanes/?slreturn=20180326132445

Blizzard, snow

Nor’easters Repeatedly Hammer the East Coast with Blizzard Conditions

Update: 03/29/2018 all four Nor’Easter storms have passed.

As the forecasts indicated when this blog was initially written, a 4th Nor’easter storm hit the east coast. Winter storm Toby began to run its course on the landscape in the early morning hours of Wednesday March 21st. After Toby had passed the snow accumulation was shocking in the areas that were hit hardest. Areas of Pennsylvania received over a foot of snow in the short period of time that Toby was over the area. Central Park in New York City recorded 8 inches of snow while some areas in Long Island, New York reported up to 20 inches from the weather system. Unlike the previous three Nor’easter storms that occurred in the weeks leading up to Toby, this storm actually impacted the entirety of the east coast in varying levels. Upon the arrival of Toby, parts of Florida and Georgia both received heavy hail in some areas along with drastically increased wind speeds along the coast. This storm actually triggered tornado watches in the northern portions of Florida. Have storms of this magnitude hit the east coast in such a short period of time before?

Even though having four powerful Nor’easters hit the east coast in such a rapid succession is uncommon, it has happened before. Actually, as recently as 2015 three Nor’easters struck the same area distributing similar weather patterns that were seen with the four storms that have hit this month. In 2015 the series of Nor’easters started with Winter Storm Lola (January 23-24 2015), and then came Winter Storm Juno (Jan. 26-28, 2015), Finally Winter Storm Linus (Feb. 2, 2015) made its arrival in the area. These storms broke records in the City of Boston, Massachusetts for the most accumulation of snow during winter that has been recorded to date.

Original Post

The word Nor’easter has been quite prevalent in the media for the last two and a half weeks as a description for the type of storms that have been wreaking havoc across the east coast. Nor’easter storms get their name from the predominant wind direction that the system gets pushed in from. These storms are pushed from the Atlantic Ocean into the East Coast of the U.S., carrying massive amounts of water with them. A typical Nor’easter storm would consist of gale force winds (around 40 miles per hour and up), rough seas off the east coast, and massive amounts of precipitation in the form of rain or snow. The way these storms form and become so powerful is quite fascinating. The polar jet stream transports cold arctic air down over the United States and meets with the warm air of the jet stream located over the gulf coast. This collision of colder air over land and warmer moist air over the Atlantic Ocean is the driving force that creates these cyclonic storm systems. Nor’easters have been seen throughout all seasons of the year, but they are the most common and the most powerful between the months of September and April.

Satellite, Imagery

This Satellite imagery displays what the formation of a Nor’easter storm looks like from space.

Current Status of the East Coast

            Yesterday, the third Nor’easter storm made landfall on the northern reaches of the east coast. The series of storms started on March second when winter storm Riley brought widespread precipitation in the forms of heavy rain and snow that earned the declaration for blizzard condition warnings in many counties. The storm hit the coast of New England with a force that would cause massive destruction. Storm surges brought about large scale coastal erosion, along with flooding of many coastal areas. At the peak of the first storm, over 1 million residents of New York, New England, and North Carolina were without power for an extended period of time. Riley was followed shortly after by winter storm Quinn. Quinn had a similar impact to the east coast, which was still trying to recover from the first storm. During this second large storm, thousands of flights had to be cancelled due to unsafe flying conditions for large passenger carrying aircraft. This storm system again passed through, leaving an absurd amount of snowfall, high wind speeds, and unsafe travel conditions. Finally, winter storm Skylar made its way to the east coast during the evening hours on Tuesday. Similar to the previous two storms that have occurred in the last two weeks, this powerful weather system left in its wake an abundance of rain and snow, accompanied by gale force winds and loss of power for hundreds of thousands of residents in the area. The storm surges seen during these storms are similar to what occurred during some of the hurricanes that hit the southern coast of the U.S. this year. You can read about the damages that occurred during these incidents in RedZone’s previous blog “Hurricanes Harvey and Irma batter Southern US”.

GIS, Snow forecast

This map provided from FEMA shows the snow levels that are expected from winter storm Skylar.

Forecast for the East Coast

Unfortunately, forecasts for the east coast are looking like residents “aren’t out of the woods yet” when it comes to heavy winter storms. The discrepancies between the American and European forecast models are mainly surrounding the formation of this storm system once both air masses collide on the east coast. What is known is that another wave of cold air is making its way across the lower 48 states through this weekend. The cool air will arrive on the east coast late Monday night into Tuesday of next week. Due to the amount of time it will take for this system to make its way over to the east coast, meteorologists cannot say with certainty how powerful this storm will be. As the week progresses, the models will become more accurate, providing more details on the occurrence of this possible Nor’easter formation.

 

Sources: https://www.weather.gov/safety/winter-noreaster

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-03-01-winter-storm-riley-noreaster-high-winds-coastal-flooding-heavy-snow

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-03-14-snow-ice-west-midwest-east-mid-march

https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USDHSFEMA/2018/03/13/file_attachments/972703/FEMA%2BDaily%2BOps%2BBriefing%2B03-13-2018.pdf

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-03-19-winter-storm-toby-fourth-march-noreaster-northeast-snow

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-03-20-four-noreasters-three-weeks-winter-storm-quinn-riley-skylar-toby

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Incoming Heavy Rains Increase Debris Flow Risk Yet Again

The National Weather Service (NWS), Los Angeles Office is warning the region that sustained heavy rains are incoming for the majority of the rest of the week. The beginning of the rain is set to arrive today (Tuesday) and last well into Thursday. The “atmospheric river” storm is expected to bring between 5 and 10 inches of rain in the foothills and mountains, significantly more total rainfall than the 1/9 debris flow, which brought between 3 and 6 inches to the region. The NWS says this storm is projected to have the heaviest rainfall and the longest duration of this winter storm season. “All models indicate high confidence in rainfall totals and the duration of the storm.”

Rainfall forecast through 3/26

National Weather Service Precipitation forecast for the Greater Los Angeles and Santa Barbara Areas through the weekend. Recent Fires are seen in black on the map as worry grows about debris flow potential.

Debris Flow Risk for Santa Barbara County Burn Areas

We caught Monday’s press conference from Emergency Officials with Santa Barbara County, who are stressing the seriousness of the renewed threat flooding and especially of debris flow.  Opening the discussion, Meteorologist, Mark Jackson warned, “A key worry with this storm is rainfall rates that can trigger debris flows. It’s not necessarily the total amount of rain that occurs; it’s how fast that rain falls.” Well, the latest meteorological models by the National Weather Service indicate that there is potential for rainfall intensity of between .5 to .75 inches per hour, which is enough to trigger debris flows at any time during the storm.

Recent Burn Areas tweet

NWS Los Angeles warning via tweet today that debris flows near recent fires are likely across the region

As a result, many residents downslope of Thomas and other fires in the region (seen as black in the map above & highlighted in the tweet below) have been evacuated or at least cautioned. Santa Barbara County is also managing and updating an evacuation map found here.  In addition, Rob Lewin, director of the Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management, warned the amount of rain and the intensity is enough to cause flooding even without the impact of the recent fires. “We could experience localized flooding and road closures which are not isolated to the burn areas. The threat of rock falls, mud slides and debris flow is high,” he noted.

“A key worry with this storm is rainfall rates that can trigger debris flows. It’s not necessarily the total amount of rain that occurs; it’s how fast that rain falls.” – Mark Jackson, NWS Meteorologist

Storm Facts:

  • Heaviest Rainfall for Ventura County to San Luis Obispo County is expected Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning (March 21 – March 22)
  • Heaviest Rainfall for LA County is expected Thursday into Thursday Night (March 22)
  • Rainfall totals for the Coasts/Valleys will be 2-5 inches, for the Foothills/Mountains more like 5-10 inches.
  • Flash flooding and significant debris flows near recent burn scars are likely
  • Urban and small stream flooding expected
  • Slight chance of main stem river flooding
  • Road closures anticipated due to rock fall in the mountains
  • Residents in the Extreme and High Risks areas of Santa Barbara County are required to evacuate at noon on Tuesday (March 20)
  • Mandatory evacuations prompted for areas below the Thomas, Whittier, and Sherpa Fires

Sources:

National Weather Service

Santa Barbara County Emergency Services

KSBY News

Blizzard, snow

Nor’easters Repeatedly Hammer the East Coast with Blizzard Conditions

The word Nor’easter has been quite prevalent in the media for the last two and a half weeks as a description for the type of storms that have been wreaking havoc across the east coast. Nor’easter storms get their name from the predominant wind direction that the system gets pushed in from. These storms are pushed from the Atlantic Ocean into the East Coast of the U.S., carrying massive amounts of water with them. A typical Nor’easter storm would consist of gale force winds (around 40 miles per hour and up), rough seas off the east coast, and massive amounts of precipitation in the form of rain or snow. The way these storms form and become so powerful is quite fascinating. The polar jet stream transports cold arctic air down over the United States and meets with the warm air of the jet stream located over the gulf coast. This collision of colder air over land and warmer moist air over the Atlantic Ocean is the driving force that creates these cyclonic storm systems. Nor’easters have been seen throughout all seasons of the year, but they are the most common and the most powerful between the months of September and April.

Satellite, Imagery

This Satellite imagery displays what the formation of a Nor’easter storm looks like from space.

Current Status of the East Coast

            Yesterday, the third Nor’easter storm made landfall on the northern reaches of the east coast. The series of storms started on March second when winter storm Riley brought widespread precipitation in the forms of heavy rain and snow that earned the declaration for blizzard condition warnings in many counties. The storm hit the coast of New England with a force that would cause massive destruction. Storm surges brought about large scale coastal erosion, along with flooding of many coastal areas. At the peak of the first storm, over 1 million residents of New York, New England, and North Carolina were without power for an extended period of time. Riley was followed shortly after by winter storm Quinn. Quinn had a similar impact to the east coast, which was still trying to recover from the first storm. During this second large storm, thousands of flights had to be cancelled due to unsafe flying conditions for large passenger carrying aircraft. This storm system again passed through, leaving an absurd amount of snowfall, high wind speeds, and unsafe travel conditions. Finally, winter storm Skylar made its way to the east coast during the evening hours on Tuesday. Similar to the previous two storms that have occurred in the last two weeks, this powerful weather system left in its wake an abundance of rain and snow, accompanied by gale force winds and loss of power for hundreds of thousands of residents in the area. The storm surges seen during these storms are similar to what occurred during some of the hurricanes that hit the southern coast of the U.S. this year. You can read about the damages that occurred during these incidents in RedZone’s previous blog “Hurricanes Harvey and Irma batter Southern US”.

GIS, Snow forecast

This map provided from FEMA shows the snow levels that are expected from winter storm Skylar.

Forecast for the East Coast

Unfortunately, forecasts for the east coast are looking like residents “aren’t out of the woods yet” when it comes to heavy winter storms. The discrepancies between the American and European forecast models are mainly surrounding the formation of this storm system once both air masses collide on the east coast. What is known is that another wave of cold air is making its way across the lower 48 states through this weekend. The cool air will arrive on the east coast late Monday night into Tuesday of next week. Due to the amount of time it will take for this system to make its way over to the east coast, meteorologists cannot say with certainty how powerful this storm will be. As the week progresses, the models will become more accurate, providing more details on the occurrence of this possible Nor’easter formation.

 

Sources: https://www.weather.gov/safety/winter-noreaster

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-03-01-winter-storm-riley-noreaster-high-winds-coastal-flooding-heavy-snow

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-03-14-snow-ice-west-midwest-east-mid-march

https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USDHSFEMA/2018/03/13/file_attachments/972703/FEMA%2BDaily%2BOps%2BBriefing%2B03-13-2018.pdf

Tornado thumbnail

Tornado Season is Fast Approaching, Will Peak Mid-Summer

So far this year severe weather has been relatively mild across this United States. Cold air across the central United States has kept the warm moist air at bay, limiting the formation of the violent thunderstorms that can produce a tornado. Since December, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has recorded 75% fewer severe weather events, making it the calmest period in 14 years. Thankfully, the few severe storms that have managed to develop haven’t spun off the outbreak of tornadoes that were experienced last year. Comparably, by this time last year over 200 tornadoes had been reported. As we move into the spring and summer months, however, conditions historically become more volatile. Like Hurricanes and Wildfires, Tornadoes have a peak season too.

Tornado probability timeline

A Timeline depicting the daily probably of a Tornado in the United States (Source: NOAA)

Where is Tornado Alley?

As we move out of winter, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico begins to creep up the infamous “tornado alley”. Tornado Alley is the swath of the country’s midsection from Northern Texas to the Canadian border. There are no official boundaries for tornado alley and the term itself is more of a media buzz word rather than scientific distinction.  The term, however, isn’t unwarranted. Almost a quarter of all tornadoes occur in this area (depicted in the map below). Although tornadoes can happen across the US, the tornadoes that form in tornado alley are frequently the largest and most destructive.

Large Tornadoes map

Map showing the where in the United States the most EF3-EF5 tornadoes are recorded. (Image from Federal Emergency Management Agency)

The Enhanced Fujita Scale for Measuring Tornadoes

Like Hurricanes, tornadoes are measured by their wind speeds. Also like hurricanes, they are measured from 0-5, but their categories are based on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The smallest tornadoes swirl between 65-85 mph which can cause localized damage. On the other end of the scale, the largest tornadoes can tear through counties and cause widespread devastation from their 200+ mph winds. The highest recorded wind speed on earth was measured at 302 mph in 1999 by a mobile weather station during an EF5 event near Oklahoma City, OK.  RedZone has found that over the last few years, NOAA has actually developed a way to show tornado paths and destruction. Now anyone can track near-real-time damage from major severe weather events using NOAA’s Damage Viewer.

EF Fujita Scale

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association estimates tornado wind speeds by examining damage to property. The Enhanced Fujita scale ensures that all tornados are rated evenly. Tornados with higher wind speeds and increased damage receive higher EF-values. (U.S. Air Force graphic/Senior Airman Thomas Trower)

SOURCES:

https://www.citylab.com/environment/2015/04/a-monthly-guide-to-peak-tornado-season-in-america/391382/

http://www.koco.com/article/la-nina-outlook-early-and-active-start-to-tornado-season-next-year/13123870

https://www.ready.gov/tornadoes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_Alley

Santa Ana Conditions This Week for Southern California

Red Flag Warning Possible through Saturday

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for Southern California beginning in the early AM hours on Monday through (at least) Friday 1200 PDT. The areas will experience a significant Santa Ana conditions with the strongest winds expected Monday night and Thursday night into Friday. Offshore winds will exacerbate the problem by drying the air and reducing humidity to the single digits. This will likely be the strongest and longest Santa Ana event we have seen in the 2017 season.

Around this time two years ago we discussed what the thresholds are for a Red Flag Warning in Southern California. In this case, the National Weather Service sees the region’s relative humidity ≤15%, with sustained winds ≥ 25 mph and/or frequent gusts ≥ 35 mph (duration of 6 hours or more). The early event projections have even stated this could extend into next weekend. Specifically, wildfire danger will be most critical in the mountains and valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. The combination of Santa Ana winds, low humidity, warm temperatures, and dry fuels will increase the risk for the rapid spread of any new fire starts. In response for this week, extra strike teams, and brush engines have been strategically staged in case of a big wildfire ignition.

RFW stats

This week’s expected Red Flag Warning statistics

Areas Impacted by Santa Ana Conditions:

Ventura County Mountains, Orange County, Los Padres National Forest, Los Angeles County Mountains, Angeles National Forest, Santa Clarita Valley, Cleveland National Forest, and San Diego County.

Click for official Santa Ana Conditions information: Red Flag Warning

santa ana conditions Dec 4

This week’s Red Flag Warning covers Southern CA from Santa Barbara to the border

 

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Tropical Storm Nate Sets Sights On Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Nate Facts:

  • Location: Eastern coast of Honduras, 1,200 miles south of New Orleans
  • Max sustained wind: 40 mph
  • Movement: NNW at 10 mph
  • Storm Behavior: Strong low pressure, heavy wind sheer forecasted to diminish leaving this storm the ability to intensify once it’s over water.

Tropical Storm Nate Overview:

 Tropical Storm Nate is currently over the eastern coast of Honduras, dumping rain over Central America, with portions under a tropical storm warning or hurricane watch. Over the next few days the storm will move north towards the eastern edges of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The troubling thing about this system is, as the storm moves north and into the Gulf, it is likely to intensify. Nate is currently displaying winds ranging from 39-73 mph, once this storm reaches the Gulf of Mexico it is forecasted to increase its wind speeds to 74-100 mph and become a category 1 hurricane.

According to the Weather Channel, portions of Central America could see up to 18 inches of rain through Friday as this system passes through. This amount of rainfall is already triggering flash floods, and mudslides throughout the area. These flooding events have already claimed 17 lives across Central America. As you can see in our map and the NHC map below, Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend above tropical storm force. The NHC is warning of the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle. Experts are expecting a hurricane watch and storm surge watch to be issued for coastal areas of the northern Gulf Coast as early as tonight or Friday morning. The path of the storm seems more certain than other storms this summer as the majority of hurricane models are in alignment on the direction and timing of the storm.


Additional Info:

NHC NOAA Tropical Storm Nate Page

Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Advisory

Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Discussion

Map:

NOAA track Oct8

NOAA Potential Track Map issued Thursday Oct 10th, 8pm eastern


Sources: NOAA, The Weather Channel, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service

hurricane harvey spins in gulf

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma batter Southern US

Hurricane Harvey (August 26-31st)

On August 17th,  the National Hurricane Center identified Tropical Storm (TS) Harvey just before it passed through the Lesser Antilles, the islands that form the eastern boundary of the Caribbean Sea with the Atlantic Ocean. Over the next two days TS Harvey moved swiftly to the west into the Caribbean under the influence of an expansive ridge of high pressure but the storm began to rapidly lose energy on the 19th of August and was subsequently downgraded to a tropical depression (TD). As TD Harvey moved from the northwestern Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico over the next four days it gained strength and was upgraded again to a Tropical Storm (TS). By the 24th of August TS Harvey had rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico and was upgraded to a Category 3 Hurricane. Hurricane Harvey made landfall in the early morning of 26 August in Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 Hurricane with a reported 130 mph maximum sustained winds. Harvey’s center of circulation stalled over South Texas for four days dumping 40 and even 50 inches of rain in the Houston and Beaumont areas. The storm moved slowly east back into the Gulf of Mexico before making a final landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, on August 30th and finally dissipating to the north in the days following.

Harvey’s slow movement from 26-30 August resulted in catastrophic flooding in southeast Texas. Numerous flash flood emergencies were issued for the Houston and Beaumont metropolitan areas as well as Bastrop County and nearby communities. Wind gusts from Harvey exceeded 100 mph in many locations, leading to widespread destruction of homes and buildings. Thousands of homes were affected by Harvey, including over 9,000 that were completely destroyed and more than 185,000 that sustained damage according to the Texas Department of Public Safety. Close to 700 businesses were also reported as damaged. Throughout Texas, more than 300,000 people were left without electricity and as of September 6th, at least 70 deaths have been confirmed as a result of Hurricane Harvey.

Additional Info:

NHC NOAA Harvey Event History

Fox News Harvey Article

 

harvey gif

Hurricane Harvey hangs over coastal Texas from August 23rd to September 1st


Hurricane Irma (September 3-11th)

Hurricane Irma reached the United States Sunday Morning, making landfall in the Lower Florida Keys as a Category 4 Hurricane. A few hours later, Category 3, it made landfall a second time just south of Naples, FL on the Southeast coast of Florida. Due to the extreme size and major hurricane status, most of Southern Florida was warned to evacuate ahead of the storm late last week. Upon landfall, extreme winds battered both southern coasts as wind speeds were recorded at 142 mph in Naples and 99 mph in Miami Beach. Storm Surge from the large powerful storm was reported in many places near ten feet along both coasts affected. On Monday, Irma brought heavy rain and wind through the northern Florida city of Jacksonville where 350 people were rescued from the flooding. Irma also pummeled the Charleston area on Monday with over 8 inches of rain and a nearly 10-foot storm surge. The past 48 hours, evacuated Floridians are again dealing with bumper-to-bumper traffic heading home to face monumental cleanups throughout the state.

Wednesday the 13th, the storm has finally completely broken up, and the National Hurricane Center has stopped updating their reports on the storm. In the wake of the storm, President Donald Trump announced this afternoon that he is set to travel to Florida on Thursday. Moody’s estimates Irma caused $83 billion in damage and 77 deaths have been attributed to the storm. Florida utilities have made good progress in restoring power to communities, as 60% of power has been restored, but 4.6 million people are still without power. It could be months before power is restored to some of the islands that were devastated by the storm.

Florida Keys:

The Florida Keys were the hardest hit and today is the first day that the roads were cleared for people to return to their homes for most of the keys. All 42 bridges along US 1 have been inspected and cleared by the Florida Department of Transportation. 80% of the roads across the keys are cleared. Power is restored to 30% of residents, but over 300 major power lines remain downed. Unofficial estimates from FEMA, according to an ABC News report, state that 25% of homes in the keys were destroyed and 90% had damage of some kind. Big Pine Key and Cudjo Key were hit the hardest, as the storm was still a category 4 when it hit them. Few people have returned to those keys, and most utility services are still unavailable. Fuel remains an issue, especially in the areas without power. Most hospitals remain closed, but some with power or backup power have reopened their emergency rooms. Key West was initially thought to have suffered heavy damage, but once people started returning and assessing the damage, most structures were not impacted, just lots of debris and downed trees.

Additional Info:

NHC NOAA Irma Event History

ABC Irma Update

irma gif

Hurricane Irma moves into and through the Caribbean from Sep 3rd through the 11th

Sources:

National Hurricane Center, NOAA, NASA Worldview

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-hurricane-harvey-flooding-houston-20170829-story.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/26/texas-cities-catastrophic-flooding-hurricane-harvey
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/01/hurricane-harvey-death-toll-rises-houston-residents-return
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-harvey-forecast-texas-louisiana-arkansas
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al09/al092017.update.08241656.shtml

RFW in Santa Barbara

Weekend Red Flag Conditions for Santa Barbara County

Santa Barbara area expecting Sundowner Winds with Red Flag

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the Santa Barbara County Mountains and South Coast region for Thursday from 0900 hours through Saturday 1000 hours PDT. The area will see sundowner winds gusting up to 40 mph and relative humidity as low as 10%. These conditions, combined with temperatures reaching into the mid 90’s in the afternoons and 100’s in isolated locations, may contribute to explosive fire behavior. The regions most at risk are the foothills and through the passes and canyons.

A sundowner wind is an offshore northerly Foehn wind that occurs near Santa Barbara, California. The winds surface when a ridge of high pressure is directly north of the area, and they blow with greatest force when the pressure gradient is perpendicular to the axis of the Santa Ynez Mountains which rise directly behind Santa Barbara. These winds often precede Santa Ana events by a day or two, as it is normal for high-pressure areas to migrate east, causing the pressure gradients to shift to the northeast.

 

Red Flag in Santa Barbara

Red Flag warning area of Santa Barbara County

Significant Santa Barbara Sundowner Events

Sundowner winds are dried and heated by the warm inland valleys and deserts. As narrow canyons and valleys compress the winds, they become stronger and overpower the diurnal winds. Firefighting efforts during a sundowner wind event can become extremely dangerous as well as difficult. Three significant fires in the last three decades have resulted in part because of sundowner conditions.

  1. The Jesusita fire in May 2009 burned 8,733 acres and destroyed 80 homes while damaging 15 more. Most of the destruction occurred while sundowner winds pushed the main fire through populated areas.
  2. The Painted Cave Fire during June 1990 rapidly grew to 5,000 acres, destroying 427 buildings and killing 1 civilian.
  3. The Sherpa Fire grew to 4,000 acres overnight due to the sundowner winds, damaging the water system for El Capitán State Beach in the middle of June of last fire season.
three major red flag sundowner fires

Three significant Sundowner fires in Santa Barbara County

 


Sources: Wikipedia, NIFC Fire history, LA Times, KEYT Santa Barbara