Aerial View of Hurricane

2020 Hurricane Season Outlook

Recently, NOAA released the 2020 Hurricane Season Outlook. Expect a more active and busy hurricane season this year. Below is a summary of the report NOAA released.

Diagram of Key Points of NOAA 2020 Hurricane Season Outlook

Diagram of Key Points of NOAA 2020 Hurricane Season Outlook

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

After experiencing two named storms before hurricane season officially started, NOAA’s 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts an “above-normal” season to be most likely. Specifically, the outlook indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, with a chance of the season being extremely active. As a result, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season could set a record for having five consecutive above-normal seasons in a row.

Similar to the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, the factor that plays the largest role in the expectation of high-activity this season is the warm sea surface temperatures. In addition, weak trade winds and an enhanced West African monsoon season are factors that will increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

NOAA Infographic

A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.

The 2020 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

  • 13-19 Named Storms
  • 6-10 Hurricanes
  • 3-6 Major Hurricanes
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 110%-190% of the median
Diagram depicting 2020 Atlantic hurricane conditions

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Conditions

2020 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

This year, NOAA’s eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook predicts a combined 75% chance for a near- or below-normal season.

The combination of slightly below-average sea surface temperatures across the eastern Pacific, and above-average sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic are often associated with near- or below-normal hurricane activity for the eastern Pacific hurricane region. Due to these seasonal trends, experts believe La Niña is most likely.

The 2020 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

  • 11-18 Named Storms
  • 5-10 Hurricanes
  • 1-5 Major Hurricanes
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 60%-135% of the median.

 

Sources: NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

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  1. […] The dust particles will produce stunning sunsets, but are also a visual indicator of hot dry air over the area. It is extremely difficult for storms to form under these conditions because hurricanes feed off moist air. The Saharan Dust will bring a temporary reprieve from what NOAA has predicted will be an “above-normal” hurricane season. […]

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