A powerful Super El Niño continues to strengthen across the Pacific Ocean. It could soon become one of the strongest El Niño events on record.
The effects are already showing up across the United States. Heavy rain and flash flooding have hit parts of the South and Southwest. Meanwhile, unusually warm and dry weather has dominated much of the central and northern U.S.
As winter approaches, this pattern could become even more noticeable.
How Strong Is the 2026 Super El Niño?
El Niño develops when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than normal. Those warmer waters can change atmospheric circulation and influence weather patterns around the world.
In mid-November, ocean temperatures in a key El Niño monitoring region reached about 2.5 degrees Celsius above average, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA uses longer-term averages to officially measure El Niño strength. Its latest three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI, reached 1.97 degrees Celsius above average from August through October.
That puts the current event close to some of the strongest El Niños on record.
NOAA says there is about a 60% chance that this event could exceed previous El Niños dating back to 1950 during upcoming three-month monitoring periods.
El Niño Is Already Changing U.S. Weather
Strong El Niño events can reshape weather across North America. This year, those changes may have arrived earlier than usual.
Meteorologists have already identified a pattern that looks similar to a typical El Niño winter. Wetter weather has favored southern parts of the country, while warmer and drier conditions have developed farther north.
The Desert Southwest recently experienced two major flash flood events. Parts of Florida received up to two feet of rain. Northern Georgia and southeastern Tennessee also experienced significant flash flooding.
Several locations have recorded exceptionally wet fall conditions. Albuquerque, Flagstaff, and West Palm Beach have all experienced record rainfall through early November.
At the same time, dozens of cities across the central U.S. have experienced one of their warmest falls on record. Chicago, Dallas, Houston, and Nashville are among them.
What Could Super El Niño Mean for Winter?
El Niño does not control every storm. Daily weather can still vary widely.
However, stronger El Niño events tend to have a greater influence on large-scale weather patterns.
Current forecasts favor a warm North and wet South pattern through at least February. That could bring more heavy rain and flooding to parts of the southern U.S. while limiting cold and snow in some northern areas.
Snowpack will be especially important to watch in the West. Where precipitation falls as rain instead of mountain snow, water supplies and summer soil moisture can be affected.
Could El Niño Affect Wildfire Risk?
The relationship between El Niño and wildfire risk is complicated. More rain can reduce fire danger in some areas by increasing soil and vegetation moisture. But wet periods can also encourage grasses and other vegetation to grow.
If that vegetation dries during spring or summer, it can become wildfire fuel.
Warm and dry conditions in other regions could create a different problem. Reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt, and prolonged warmth can dry landscapes sooner and potentially lengthen the fire season.
That means the wildfire effects of this Super El Niño will depend heavily on where rain and snow fall this winter and what happens afterward.
A Winter Worth Watching
The 2026 Super El Niño has not reached its peak yet, but its influence is already clear.
Flooding, record warmth, heavy rainfall, and unusual seasonal patterns are appearing across the country. The coming months will show whether this El Niño reaches historic strength.
For wildfire professionals, the winter will also provide important clues about the year ahead. Snowpack, rainfall, vegetation growth, drought, and spring temperatures will all help shape wildfire risk in 2027.
Source: The Weather Channel, source
