Smoke Column

Wildland Fire Potential Outlook: May, June, July, and August

Below is the synopsis for each geographic region that is referenced in terms of Significant Wildland Fire Potential. The full outlook can be located here which will give more insight into the statements that you see below.

Alaska:

Above Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected across the Interior along travel corridors in May. All other areas can expect Normal significant wildland fire potential during the outlook period.

Northwest:

Normal significant large fire potential is expected across the region during the outlook period except west of the Cascade crest in Washington and Oregon through August where Above Normal significant large fire potential is expected. The Above Normal potential in these areas will gradually spread southward and eastward along the Canadian Border from northwestern Washington as the season progresses.

Northern California and Hawaii:

Normal significant large fire potential is expected across mainland portions of the region in May. Above Normal significant fore potential is expected across the mountains and forests surrounding the Bay Area and in the Sacramento Valley and surrounding foothills June through August. The Above Normal fire potential will expand north to the Oregon state line in August. Below Normal significant fire potential is expected in July across the high Sierras and across portions of the Northwestern Mountains. Above Normal significant fire potential is expected across the lee side of the Hawaiian Islands during the outlook period. Areas not mentioned above can expect Normal significant large fire potential during the outlook period.

Southern California:

Normal significant large fire potential is expected across the region during the outlook period except in the foothills and coastal mountains where Above Normal significant large fire potential is expected June through August. Below Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected in the southern Sierra in June and July.

Northern Rockies:

Normal significant large fire potential is expected across the region during the outlook period except across the northern Idaho Panhandle where Above Normal significant large fire potential is expected in July and August.

Great Basin:

Normal significant large fire potential is expected across the region during the outlook period except across the southern portion of the region in May and June when Above Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected and across the higher mountains of eastern Idaho and Utah where Below Normal significant large fire potential is expected May through July. Below Normal significant wildland fire potential is also expected across the eastern portions of the Sierras in May and June.

Southwest:

Below Normal significant large fire potential is expected across portions of northern Arizona, northern New Mexico, and West Texas in May and June. Above Normal significant large fire potential is expected across southern Arizona May until the monsoon arrives in July…then expect Normal decreasing large fire potential. Elsewhere, expect Normal significant large fire potential during the outlook period. Since mid-January, average high temperatures have been slightly below average west of the Continental Divide region and across many areas of New Mexico. However, some areas across New Mexico into West Texas have experienced high temperatures a few degrees above average during the period. The region has generally seen above average precipitation across the northwestern half of the region over the past 90 days whereas most of the southeastern portion of the region has experienced precipitation between 20-70% of average.

Rocky Mountain:

Normal significant wildland large fire potential is expected across the region during the outlook period except across south central-southwestern South Dakota, Northeastern Colorado, and Central through southern Colorado where Below Normal significant wildland large fire potential is expected in May, June, and July.

Eastern Area:

Below Normal significant large fire potential is across the southern portion of the region across southern Missouri, southern Indiana, and southern Illinois in May. Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected elsewhere during the outlook period.

Southern Area:

Above Normal significant large fire potential is expected across southern Puerto Rico in May. Below Normal significant large fire potential is expected across portions of Texas and Oklahoma in May and June and across western Kentucky in August. In areas not mentioned above, expect Normal significant fire potential during the outlook period.

 

National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for May 2019

National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for June 2019

National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July 2019

National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for August 2019

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  1. […] will continue to fuel the threat of wildfires. The National Inter-agency Fire Center released their fire potential outlook for summer months, predicting an above average fire season for all of the twelve western states […]

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