Early this week the National Weather Service (NWS) indicated that conditions in the Southern Plains may evolve into a significant fire weather event. Specifically, The National Weather Service issued a Red Flag Warning on Monday (2/6) for an area encompassing the Southeastern Colorado Plains through Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. A fire weather watch is also in effect for South Central Texas through Tuesday (2/7).
A Pacific Jet Stream moving through the area resulted in critical to near-critical fire weather conditions for the Region. According to forecasters, particularly strong winds coupled with low relative humidity and the current dry fuel situation amplified the potential for extreme fire behavior. Tuesday (2/7) should bring more of the same as the Pacific Jet Stream moves east through the area. It’s likely that the current warning, set to expire this evening (2/6) at 1700 hours, could be reinstated for at least some of the region tomorrow should conditions persist.
Southern Plains Fire Activity
Dry and windy fire conditions were evident this past weekend as active fires burned across Texas, Oklahoma, and even Colorado. In Elbert County, CO, a rare winter fire scorched nearly five hundred-acres. Residents were given notice to evacuate as the fire approached the aptly-named Chaparral Subdivision. Six or seven homes were briefly threatened as seven fire crews scrambled to get a handle on it. The fire was called contained at 1900 hours Saturday. In order to ensure control, crews stayed behind to patrol the blackened perimeter overnight.
Concern in Southern Plains Predicted
Above normal significant wildfire potential is expected for the Southern Plains for not just early this week, but for at least the next two months. This month’s recently published wildfire outlook, a report from Predictive Services (NIFC), suggested that any prolonged periods of dry and windy conditions in the Southern Plains could “provide opportunities for any ignitions to become significant fires.” The report further stated that last year’s precipitation totals in the region have brought about a somewhat robust fine fuel crop. The excess fine fuel could increase fire activity and likely warrant extra attention for the area when dry and windy conditions are forecasted, as were seeing this week.
NIFC Predictive Services, ABC 7 Denver, National Weather Service