Burn Scar

Debris Flow Devastates Montecito, CA Immediately After The Thomas Fire

While the threat of the Thomas fire just recently diminished in Ventura and Santa Barbra Counties, residents were weary to hear that they are now being threatened by mudslides originating from within the burn area. Rain started Monday afternoon in the areas of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, with the peak rainfall being around 2:30 AM Tuesday morning. The rain came down in amounts up to an inch per hour over the burned area, which the incident commander reported as being a critical factor in the amount of sediment and debris being carried by this amount of water. The devastating debris flow ranged from Cold Springs Canyon to Toro Canyon, and wreaked havoc all the way down to Highway 101. The debris flow was so strong in some locations that it pushed homes off of their foundations and carried them several hundred feet.

First responders have been preparing for this incident since Monday morning by preemptively staging resources in the areas that were forecasted to be impacted the most severely. This strategic placement of resources was followed by officials releasing evacuation zones. The warning stated that all residents within mandatory evacuation zones should leave by 12 noon on Monday in preparation for the heavy rains that were forecasted for the area. Since the early morning hours of Tuesday, first responders have been in a search and rescue mode: still actively engaged in performing helicopter and contact rescues. The threat from this debris flow still remains and first responders are warning residents to stay away from the area if at all possible.

Debris flow

An explanation of a debris flow, and its power.

 

Over the last couple weeks of the Thomas Fire the Federal Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) Team has been evaluating the blaze’s impact to the fire area and watersheds by predicting debris flow hazards should rains like this impact the area. The orange, red, and dark red areas were determined to have the highest probability of debris flow during a heavy rain event. The BAER team is currently embedded with the Santa Barbara and Ventura Office of Emergency Services to assist them in implementing response plans for communities downstream of the fire.

BAER Debris Flow

The map above displays estimates of the likelihood of debris flow (in %), potential volume of debris flow, and combined relative debris flow hazard.

Santa Barbara/Ventura Flooding at a Glance

  • 17 confirmed deaths related to the storms (These numbers are subject to change as the incident continues)
  • 13 missing people
  • At least 25 injured
  • 50 rescues via helicopter hoists have been performed during today’s search and rescue operations.
  • 1-6.5 inches of rainfall over the Thomas Fire area.
  • Search and rescue efforts still remain priority with approximately 75 percent of the primary search completed in the debris flow area.

If you liked the material in this blog, you can read similar material RedZone has covered here.

Sources

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/09/us/southern-california-evacuations-rain-flooding/index.html

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-rainfall-mudflow-20180109-story.html

http://santabarbara.onerain.com/map/?sensor_class=10|2880&view_id=5&view=8bc6e88f-eeab-4281-9d92-3d723016e945

https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow/detail.php?objectid=178

Aerial photo over Kynsna area (Source: South African Red Cross)

Wildfires Rage Across South Africa’s Cape After Massive Winter Storm

Hundreds are left homeless and thousands remain evacuated after the strongest winter storm in decades assaulted Cape Town, South Africa, and continued across the southern region of South Africa known as the Western Cape. Numerous lightning strikes associated with the massive storm ignited wildfires that raged across hillsides, fueled by gusting and strong winds, even as nearby areas began to flood and were drenched by rain. Tuesday evening, June 6th, the storm began to impact the Western Cape. By Wednesday, thousands of residents along the major roadway N2, famously known as the “Garden Route”, were evacuated as wildfires blazed toward nearby neighborhoods. As of June 8th, 4pm PDT, nine deaths are attributed to the storm, home collapses, and wildfires.

Storm Impact & Wildfires in Area around Cape Town and Knysna (Source: Google Earth)

Storm & Wildfire Impacted Area around Cape Town and Knysna (Source: Google Earth)

Current Situation

The local media is referring to this as the “mother of all storms”. A compounding factor to the devastating impact to the region is the already poor housing covering much of the area. Shanty towns burn quickly and can also collapse simply due to the strength of the winds. Flood waters also washed away several communities due to non-permanent construction. Part of the evacuation process included a local hospital in Knysna had to move all personnel and patients due to the approaching wildfires. The rain now falling on the Knysna area will assist firefighting efforts to get the wildfires under control; however, the additional rains will increase the possibilities for mudslides in the area.

Activity of Wildfires in last 48 hours, centered on Knysna (Source: Advanced Fire Information System Viewer – AFIS)

Wildfire activity in last 48 hours, centered on Knysna (Source: Advanced Fire Information System Viewer – AFIS)

Recovery & Outlook

So far, reports indicate more than 150 structures were destroyed throughout 20 suburbs. Cape Town, fortunately, has restored approximately 90% of its power. Across the impacted area, staff are opening shelters and resource centers to assist those displaced. The rains received may help with a fraction of the drought situation, but Level 3 water restrictions remain in place. Wetting rains over a longer duration are needed to truly have an impact. Local volunteers are collecting donations of items such as food, water, blankets, and other basic necessities for those affected by this disaster.

Aerial photo over Kynsna area of wildfires (Source: South African Red Cross)

Aerial photo over Kynsna area (Source: South African Red Cross)

Read further

Live update stream: http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/live-knysna-evacuation-underway-20170607

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40199270

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/powerful-winter-storm-kills-at-least-eight-in-cape-town/70001884

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/08/world/south-africa-fires/

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/storm-kills-displaces-thousands-cape-town-170608052748704.html

Pfieffer Bridge in Big Sur is impassible

Crumbling Bridge Splits Big Sur Community

The Central Coast of California has been a hot spot for activity this year. The normally quaint and quiet Big Sur area is one of the wettest and most rugged in all of Coastal California. In the past year, the area has seen the region’s largest ever fire (Soberanes), and its highest winter rainfall accumulation in over a decade. Although the latest winter storms in February have pulled the area out of a six year long drought, it also has also–quite literally–split the Monterey County community in two.

Heavy Rains Damage Monterey County Roads and Bridges

Since the beginning of the year, the well-traveled section of Highway 1 through Big Sur has seen over 15 inches of rain, and its steep hillsides have endured numerous land and mud slides. Consequently, a 50-mile stretch of the highway has been closed to facilitate a major cleanup effort for the better part of a month. What’s worse is that the Pfeiffer Canyon Bridge (in the Soberanes Fire area) has actually buckled due to the support columns moving from heavy runoff during early February’s rain events. Highway 1 has had a hard closure there, making the highway impassible since February 12th.

Pfieffer Bridge in Big Sur is impassible

The Pfeiffer Bridge in Big Sur has been impassible since February 12, 2017

As a result, tourists have had to deal with very long detours and local residents have been left stranded. The bridge’s support columns have shifted a significant distance from their operational location and have made the bridge unable to support the minimum mandated weight. Cal trans crews are working on plans to demolish the bridge into 3 manageable sections for removal and then begin the yearlong process of building a new structure. Crews have spent the weeks since the bridge damage discovery moving demolition equipment into place using helicopters.

On March 13th, the demolition process began with a 6,000 pound wrecking ball. After a few hours of work the crews realized that in the current configuration, the wrecking ball could not get enough downward force to break up the bridge. Parts were ordered to change the configuration and demolition personnel were set to try again on March 15th.

Impact to Big Sur Residents Could Last Months

While the road crews focus all their efforts on getting more sections of the Highway open, around 400 residents have been unable to drive from their homes, relying only on their supplies at home. Due to the lengthy closure, affected homeowners have run low on food and water. Some are resorting to travelling by foot to get hundreds of pounds of food while others are utilizing rations that have been flown into locations by helicopter.

A plan is underway to actually build a new hiking trail (1/2 mile foot path) that can be used by homeowners to get around the Pfeiffer Bridge closure. The trail is being constructed by California Conservation Crews and numerous volunteers, and will take some time to complete. The use of the trail will be limited to residents and can only be used during specific hours.

For emergency responders, the closure situation causes a different problem in terms accessing residences during future emergency situations. The new bridge will take months to construct and the Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade is responsible for the safety of residents on both sides of the closure. As a solution, the brigade has actually split into two response areas but, at this point, cannot access all of their response territory. Currently, there is a contingency plan in place to use a Medivac helicopter to get people out that may need medical attention. The Big Sur Medical Center, which is also affected by the closure, has continued to receive medical resupply, including daily prescriptions that area residents need. The sense is that local authorities seem confident in the contingency plan in place. They have said numerous times that they will be able to provide emergency services to all remote areas.

san jose flood

Areas of San Jose Flood After Nearby Dam Overflows

Low-lying areas of San Jose have flooded due to increased runoff from Anderson Lake after a weekend of multiple rain storms.  The lake, which is 15 miles southeast of San Jose, had been slowly filling to capacity.  Water levels eventually spilled over Anderson Dam into Coyote Creek which flows northwest, directly into the heart of San Jose.  The influx of extra runoff caused the creek to crest at a height of over 13 feet, causing widespread flooding to many areas between Gilroy and San Jose.

The worst of the Flooding appears to be centered on the Nordale neighborhood of San Jose. Many homes and streets in that area are under water. As of Tuesday afternoon (2/21), 186 residents had been evacuated via boat and helicopter. San Jose mayor Sam Liccardo announced that up to 500 more residents were under voluntary evacuation as the creek continues to receive the dam’s excess water. The city itself saw over two more inches of rain on top of a very wet winter. The area has had measurable precipitation on all but five of the days so far this month.

San Jose Flood at a Glance

• Recent storms have caused Coyote Creek to become a spillway for Anderson Reservoir, which is overflowing beyond its capacity.
• Rescue efforts have been focused on the Nordale Neighborhood in the heart of San Jose where dozens of people were aided to safety by boat and helicopter.
• Officials are concerned with potential contamination of the water due to potentially overflowing sewage lines, oil and gas from vehicles trapped in the water, or household chemicals that may have leaked into the flood waters.
• San Jose’s mayor announced a voluntary evacuation for low-lying areas along Coyote Creek between the I-880 and the Capitol Expressway due to the risk of continued flooding.
• So far, 16 of February’s 21 days have involved measurable precipitation in San Jose.
• Multiple zoo animals had to be relocated in the nearby Happy Hollow Park.

San Jose Flood Outlook

The persistent rains are forecasted to cease overnight, and dryer weather is expected at least through Saturday evening.  Despite the release of countless gallons of water, Anderson Dam will still sit well above its recommended level of 68% for the foreseeable future.  Evacuated residents will have to wait until the floodwaters subside to return to their homes, and may be delayed by the potential of polluted water.

In the past few weeks, most of the rainfall worries have been centered on Butte County and the Oroville Dam Spillway situation.  If the relentless rain trend continues, reservoirs across the state of California could see further rising levels, which in turn could increase the risk of more flooding events.

Sources: Weather Channel, ABC7 News: Bay Area, Wunderground

Heavy Rain Event Underway for Southern California

The West Coast is bracing for yet another heavy rain event. Luckily, each storm this winter has slowly helped the previously dire drought situation, which covered most of the State of California. This storm, however, will bring sustained rain from Southern Oregon all the way south through San Diego. The worst of it, though, has its sights set on Southern California, arriving late Thursday. Meteorologists are predicting the region may see the heaviest precipitation in six years, including up to 8 inches in some areas. The National Weather Service in Los Angeles is saying that daily rain records are likely to be set on Friday. Strong winds, up to 50 or 60 mph, are also expected. As the heavy rain nears, local authorities are preparing for widespread road closures, power outages, tree damage, flash flooding, and coastal flooding.

Storm Total Rain through Saturday for the Los Angeles Area

Projected Rainfall for the next 36 hours from the National Weather Service out of Los Angeles

Mudslide Potential

There will also be a real potential for mudslides in some areas, especially within the several recent burn scars in the region that align with the heavy expected rain (seen in the map below). Approximately 180 homes in Duarte have already been evacuated ahead of the storm due to their close proximity to an expected debris flow from the Fish Fire burn scar. Similarly, residents in Glendora, near the Colby Fire burn area, were told to remain “on alert”. Local officials are likely being cautious as annually the CDC reports 25-50 deaths a year from mudslides on average in the US.

Recent Burn Scars all to receive 3+ inches of heavy rain

Map showing where 2016’s recent burn scars shown against the forecasted rain totals for Southern CA

Northern California to See Heavy Rain Too

While Northern California will not see as widespread a downpour, that region will also see significant rainfall totals. Due to the incoming storm, the Lake Oroville situation remains troubling, despite the fact that Butte County Officials have technically lifted the evacuation orders for residents. The lake has lowered 30 feet since its peak during the last storm.  Officials hope they can relieve the reservoir of another 30 before the rains arrive again (the current rate is reportedly one foot every three hours). Unfortunately, the Oroville watershed is forecast to receive another 5-8 inches of rain itself by the end of the weekend, which could swell the lake to complicated levels again. Fortunately, the rain has continued to help swell California’s reservoirs statewide to near or, in most cases, over their historical average level.

Additionally, heavy snow is also projected for the high elevations and Sierra Nevada Range. An additional two feet of snow is forecast to add to the already above-average snowpack throughout the region. As an example, Eastern Sierra’s Mammoth Mountain, which has already received a whopping 432 inches of snow this winter, is expecting another 24-32” by Wednesday night.

Sources

National Weather Service, The Weather Channel, AccuWeather, LA Times, NOAA

Lake Oroville Dam Verges on Collapse

Officials released water from an emergency spillway at Lake Oroville that has not been used since the dam was built in 1968. Oroville Dam is the highest dam in the nation and stores water in California’s second largest reservoir. Crews have been closely monitoring the water flow during this historic winter that has filled up most of Northern California’s lakes and reservoirs, pulling much of the state out of its 6-year drought.

Almost 200,000 Evacuated in Lake Oroville Flood Plain

On Sunday, February 12th, 2017, the California Department of Water Resources decided to open the emergency spillway after a large hole in the main spillway developed and debris blocked outlets, causing water levels to reach the emergency spillway’s maximum capacity. As water cascaded over the concrete wall, dirt began to wash downhill into the valley below. The movement of the hillside caused officials to worry that a complete failure was imminent, and they began California’s largest mass evacuation since the 2007 wildfires in Southern California. Nearly 200,000 people that live within the established flood plains were asked to vacate. As of February 14, at 15:00 PST, all evacuation orders had been lifted, but residents are still on edge as more winter storms approach the region.

Lake Oroville Dam

The area below the Lake Oroville emergency spillway (As of 2/13/2017). (Photo courtesy of http://www.latimes.com)

While residents were told they had an hour to evacuate the area, officials worked on a plan of how to prevent a total failure of the emergency spillway. Rushing water was washing away the anchor that held the emergency spillway’s concrete foundations in place. As the water pushed over the dirt, it caused the hillside to crumble and move downslope, weakening the earth that holds back millions of gallons of water. Water moved at 100,000 cubic-feet-per-second (cfs) over the main spillway, as officials attempted to drop water levels below the emergency spillway’s banks.  Their goal was a decrease of at least 50 feet so as to minimize structural damage in the short term, and prepare for more winter storms and snow melt in the coming months. On Monday, February 13, 2017, helicopters began dropping bags of boulders over the heavily eroded ground in an attempt to stop more erosion and strengthen areas below the emergency spillway.

Water Levels Down, but Not Completely Safe Yet

Though no more water flows over the emergency spillway, 100,000 cfs of water continues to rage down the main spillway, and evacuees have no timeframe for when they can return home. As of 1pm PT on February 13, 2017, officials reported that water levels were 9ft below the emergency spillway’s breaching point, and helicopters continued to provide erosion control measures to the hardest hit areas. The most recent estimate for repairs to the spillway is upwards of $200 million, and these repairs cannot begin until water levels are stabilized.

Sources:

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-live-updates-oroville-dam-butte-county-sheriff-defends-evacuation-1487022068-htmlstory.html

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Oroville-Dam-emergency-spillway-in-use-for-first-10925628.php

https://calfire.blogspot.com/2017/02/

Nation Braces for More Severe Storms

Another Severe Storm on Deck

As much of the United States is still feeling the effects of the severe storms that distressed the country last week, the nation braces for another round of severe weather.  Quick on Winter Storm Jupiter’s coattails is another severe storm, which already has a name.  Winter Storm “Kori” is forecast to hit the west coast by mid-week, establishing yet another atmospheric river over the region. Multiple weather warnings have been issued well ahead of this storm as most of the Pacific Northwest prepares for flooding, ice, freezing rain, and high winds. Parts of the Portland metro area along with the Washington Cascades and the Columbia River Gorge will have the greatest chance for damaging ice accumulations as cold air and precipitation will linger in those areas the longest.

severe storms

Precipitation Forecast for the Next 7 Days.

The storm is expected to persist through the weekend as the front plows eastward. Meanwhile, a concurrent storm will have the Southeast experiencing waves of heavy rain.  Two converging fronts will cause warm, tropical air to be pulled up from the south bringing unseasonably warm temperatures and heavy rainfall over the majority of Appalachia. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. It appears 2017 will start off the year with the vengeance that was expected–but didn’t materialize–from last year’s El Nino weather pattern.

Earlier Severe Storms

In previous weeks, western states received much needed rain, helping to alleviate concerns due to record warmth and prolonged drought. Parts of the Sierra Mountain range, under drought since December of 2011, are now buried under as much as 10 feet and have already doubled the average snow-pack for this time of year.  Similarly, the State of Colorado has already received 75% of its annual snow-pack and a staggering 400 avalanches have been recorded to date. Down in Texas, heavy rains drenched the state and at least four tornadoes were spotted late Sunday.

The Midwest, however, seems to have taken the brunt of the recent bad weather.  The ice storm pushed eastward leaving a swath of downed trees, power outages and traffic accidents in its wake. Freezing rain and ice accumulated on trees and powerlines across the heartland, causing them to collapse under the added weight. Multiple Midwest states reported power outages leaving thousands of customers without electricity.  According to the Associated Press, Oklahoma was especially hard hit with “tens of thousands of Oklahoma homes and businesses (reporting a loss of) power during Jupiter.”

severe storms

Over an Inch of Ice Accumulation Causes Widespread Power Outages.

The swift and frigid storm also made for extremely hazardous driving conditions which resulted in several road closures and numerous auto accidents.  Hundreds of injuries and sadly 7 fatalities were caused by the slippery surfaces.

 

Sources:

https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/winter-storm-kori-snow-ice-atmospheric-river-west-northwest-california-oregon

http://www.wfaa.com/weather/storms-combine-to-create-tornadoes-home-damage-in-dfw-and-beyond/386368403

http://www.aol.com/article/weather/2017/01/16/deadly-ice-storm-spreads-into-midwest-targets-new-england/21655905/

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/winter-storm-jupiter-ice-storm-plains-midwest-latest-news

Atmospheric River Brings Heavy Snow and Rain to California

California started 2017 off with an extremely active weather pattern. Since January 3rd, an “atmospheric river” has brought heavy rain and snow to much of the state. Ski areas within the Sierra Nevada mountain range are reporting close to record snow totals (Mammoth Mountain 101″ of snowfall, Heavenly 114″ and Squaw Valley 94″).

The lower elevations are receiving significant rainfall as well, causing some rivers to overflow.  Area lakes are nearing capacity, prompting officials to expel extra water in preparation for runoff from higher elevations. Though Southern California has not received as much rainfall as the Northern portions of the state, they continue to see rainfall totals in the .5″ to 1.0″ range per storm. Winter storms have now accounted for 5 deaths in Northern California. The forecast calls for January 10th and 11th to be the heaviest snow and rainfall period of the recent storms.

atmospheric river

An atmospheric river is a narrow corridor or filament of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere.

Far-reaching Effects

Since January 1st, officials in Lake Tahoe are reporting a rise in water level of roughly 1 foot, which is equal to about 33.6 billion gallons of water. Down in the Sacramento Valley, the state Water Resources Division had to open the gates of a 100-year-old levee in order to alleviate rising water levels. This was no small task, as each of the dam’s 48 doors had to be opened up manually.

Officials are expecting numerous avalanches in prone areas due to new snowfall on an already heavy snowpack. Avalanche warnings currently extend from as far north as Mt. Shasta to as far south as Mt. Whitney.  Mammoth Mountain Ski area had to stop operations over the weekend due to blizzard conditions and thunderstorms over the ski resort which could have put patrons at risk.

What is and Atmospheric River?

Sounding like something out of a science fiction novel about time travel, an atmospheric river is a narrow corridor or filament of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere.  When these “rivers in the sky” make landfall, they often release this water vapor in the form of heavy rain or snow.  The most common of such meteorological phenomena is a Pineapple Express, the name given to the warm water vapor plumes that originate over Hawaii and follow the jet stream northeast toward California. Many of California’s major flooding events have historically been a product of an atmospheric river.

Sources:

 

Landslide Concerns in Fire-Ravaged Gatlinburg TN

While the community of Gatlinburg, Tennessee grieves their losses and starts planning how to recover and rebuild, a new threat confronts the area. An inch and a half of winter rain helped put out the horrific fire over the weekend, but as we’ve covered in the past, wildfire-scorched areas often have an increased risk of landslides and mudslides. Local fire crews have thus far reported several small landslides that are slowing their ability to access damaged areas.

wildfire landslides

Before and After Image of a Burn Scar from the Chimney Tops 2 Fire

How a Fire Can Increase Landslide Risk?

Depending on soil type and topography, vegetation and land cover have a significant impact on the stability of the soil. Under normal conditions, leaf litter and other surface vegetation slow the rainfall water moving down a given slope.  This allows much of that moisture to permeate through the soil and drain into the water table or aquifer below, leaving the surface soil relatively stable.  Even during heavy rainfall when surface soil becomes saturated, root systems from brush and trees help to keep the soil from moving downhill.

However, when vegetation is lost due to wildfire (or other reasons such as construction), the factors that keep soil in place are minimized, and there is greater risk that the soil’s surface tension in a given area is overcome by gravity and washes down the slope.

Gatlinburg is in the Great Smoky Mountains, a very old mountain range within the Appalachian Mountain region. Due to the age of the mountains and the region’s climate, the mountains themselves are very weathered, and have much deeper soils than the mountains in the Western United States. The region is also heavily wooded, so the roots of the dense vegetation help to stabilize the nearby soil. When the wildfires recently moved through the area, the vegetation and leaf litter was burned out, and the stabilizing root systems were compromised. Storms then came and assisted in firefighting efforts, but the lack of vegetation due to the recent burns caused a few small slides. Before winter brings snow to the normally wet area, an increased likelihood for flooding, mudslides, and landslides remains a worrying possibility. As of December 7th, there is little rain forecasted in the region for several days.

Visit ready.gov to learn about how to better protect yourself, your family, and your property from landslides and other hazards.

GOES-R Environmental Satellite Launched

On November 19, NASA celebrated the successful launch of its latest weather satellite, the revolutionary GOES-R (named GOES-16 once it is operational). This next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) will deliver better weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and space weather monitoring for Earth’s entire western hemisphere.

GOES-R Liftoff on November 19, 2016

GOES-R Liftoff on November 19

GOES-R_Spacecraft

GOES Mission Overview

Positioned roughly 22,000 miles above Earth’s surface, GOES satellites continuously monitor the Western hemisphere, including the United States, the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, Central and South America, and Southern Canada. GOES satellites fly in a geostationary orbit, meaning they rotate around the Earth at the same rate as the Earth spins, so their view of the Earth’s surface never changes. The coverage, along with the sensor suite, allows for constant, near real time coverage of Earth’s weather, climate, and large storm events. GOES also has sensors looking toward the sun and space, measuring solar and space weather.

Why the GOES-R Satellite is Significant

The most exciting update to GOES-R in relation to disaster intelligence is the updated Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The image above describes the improvements to the new sensor. Below are the benefits related to these improvements.

  • Improved hurricane track and intensity forecasts
  • Improved route planning for aviation
  • More advanced warning for severe storms
  • More advanced warning for air quality warnings and alerts
  • Better fire detection and intensity estimation
  • More and better quality data for long-term climate variability studies

This is only one of several next-generation advanced sensors onboard GOES-R. Other sensors will help researchers study tornado warnings, climate, and space and solar weather. It’s no wonder that people are excited about this momentous launch!

Source(s):

http://www.goes-r.gov/

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/6-reasons-why-noaa%E2%80%99s-goes-r-satellite-matters