As the ‘typical’ fire season comes to a close, the National Interagency Fire Center is forecasting below-normal, normal, and returning-to-normal autumn conditions across the U.S.
The only area not already at or below normal fire potential is Southern California’s coast which remains in a drought but is predicted to return to normal by the end of the month.
Image by NIFC – Predictive Services
So far the fall season has brought a few significant rain events coupled with high tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific. Heavy rain fell in Texas and in the Southeast U.S. leading to below-normal fire potential in those now-soggy areas. The approaching El Niño has a high probablity of continuing into the Spring of 2016 and keeping conditions wet in the Southern U.S. and most notably in drought-stricken California where normal fire potential is predicted to resume for the next three months.
The full NIFC Fire Potential Outlook can be found here.